Europe at a crossroads: Rethinking security in an uncertain era

For decades, the transatlantic alliance has been the cornerstone of European security. However, this partnership faces a critical juncture, with the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. If US military aid to Ukraine ceases, the implications for the war and European defence against external threats, especially a revanchist Russia, could be dire, according to Foreign Affairs.

European reliance on the United States for security is not new, but it has led to complacency. Despite years of American pressure, Europe failed to bolster its defence capabilities or shoulder greater responsibility within the alliance. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine should have spurred decisive European action, yet much of the burden still falls on Washington. The Biden administration’s support for Kyiv has been robust, but this commitment may not last, especially under a potential Trump presidency. European leaders now face an urgent need to assume primary responsibility for their continent’s security.

Europe's security potential is undeniable; the EU's combined GDP vastly outstrips Russia's. However, political will remains insufficient. European military support for Ukraine, while significant, pales in comparison to US contributions. Worse, internal political instability in key nations like Germany and France further hampers coordinated action. Nonetheless, some countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states, have shown leadership in supporting Ukraine.

To secure its future, Europe must rapidly enhance its defence capabilities. This includes ramping up military aid to Ukraine, integrating its defence industries, and fostering collective security policies. Countries like Germany must take bolder steps, including providing advanced weaponry and easing restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western arms against Russia.

Additionally, Europe must reform its defence industry to reduce reliance on foreign arms and focus on collective production and procurement. Such efforts will require leadership from major European powers and a unified strategy to compete with global defence sectors.

While Europe must act independently, retaining a robust partnership with the United States remains crucial. Transatlantic cooperation must extend to global challenges, including countering alliances between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. A shared strategy is essential to preserving the international liberal order and deterring further aggression.

Europe stands at a defining moment. Failing to rise to the challenge risks emboldening Russia and reigniting widespread conflict on the continent. By assuming responsibility for its security, Europe can safeguard its future while preserving a balanced partnership with the United States.