Europe fears US abandonment of NATO under Trump’s leadership

In a recent article, Newsweek unveils that as President Donald Trump's leadership unfolds, growing concerns are being raised across Europe about whether the US could abandon NATO.

While Trump has long been a vocal critic of the US-led transatlantic alliance, experts argue that he wouldn't need to formally withdraw from NATO to dismantle it. The White House, according to experts, has various avenues to weaken the alliance without a formal exit. Eroding the trust that is the foundation of NATO’s very existence could lead to its collapse, they say. For many, this process seems to have already started.

To officially withdraw from NATO, the Trump administration would need to give a one-year notice as stipulated by Article 13 of the alliance’s treaty. This requirement reflects the historical confidence in the US unwavering commitment to NATO, with the US government required to notify both its own government and other NATO member states. 

However, this is not a straightforward path. President Trump would also have to consult with the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, according to Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official. Adding complexity to the process, Congress passed legislation in late 2023 to prevent any US president from withdrawing from NATO without approval from two-thirds of the Senate or a separate measure passed by Congress. 

This provision, supported by now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was included in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2024, signed into law by former President Joe Biden. Despite these formalities, experts argue that Trump could effectively fragment NATO without taking the dramatic step of withdrawal. David Blagden, an associate professor of international security and strategy at the University of Exeter in the UK, explained, "The informal process would be even easier." He elaborated that simply suggesting that the US might not honor its commitment to NATO’s Article 5 could effectively "deaden much of NATO's credibility." 

Article 5 is the cornerstone of NATO’s collective defense, obligating member states to come to the aid of any member nation that is under armed attack, responding in ways they deem appropriate. The US vast nuclear arsenal, second only to Russia’s, has historically served as a powerful deterrent against potential attacks on NATO countries. 

While the UK and France also maintain nuclear weapons, concerns persist over whether their stockpiles are large enough or whether the circumstances would justify their use, particularly without the US significantly larger arsenal.

By Naila Huseynova