Europe’s record heatwaves linked to at least 35,000 excess deaths

At least 35,000 more people than usual are estimated to have died during four consecutive, record-breaking heatwaves across Europe this summer, according to incomplete data covering just over half of the continent, cited by The Guardian.

Experts warn that the toll is likely to rise substantially as August figures are compiled and national estimates are finalised.

Preliminary figures from Germany, France and Spain alone account for more than 25,000 excess deaths. The heatwaves, which swept western Europe in succession from May onward, broke historical temperature records at hundreds of weather stations. France recorded its hottest national average day on record, while Germany set new temperature records for three consecutive days in late June, with 46 stations recording more than 40C (104F). Spain experienced prolonged temperatures above 42C.

Scientists say human-caused climate change is making extreme heat more frequent and severe.

Germany has reported the highest toll so far. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths between April 6 and August 9, including 9,600 deaths in the week of June 22-28 alone. EU-wide excess mortality data compiled systematically since 2008 show that only one other summer week — during the July 2022 heatwave, when COVID-19 was still circulating — recorded a higher rate of additional deaths.

This summer is Germany’s deadliest for heat since records began, surpassing the previous high of 8,900 deaths in 2018. RKI said heat-related deaths during a typical summer are often below 2,000.

Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute estimates that 4,947 deaths were attributable to heat between May and this week, making 2026 the country’s deadliest year for heat-related mortality and exceeding the previous record of 4,520 deaths in 2022.

Countries use different methodologies. Germany and Spain model heat-related mortality in real time by comparing daily temperatures with mortality patterns. Such estimates are necessary because heat is rarely recorded as the direct cause of death. Instead, extreme temperatures can aggravate respiratory or cardiovascular conditions, contributing to fatal heart attacks, strokes or kidney failure.

Final attribution can take weeks or months. Former German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said recently that the figures released so far would probably prove to be underestimates.

France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures above 40C and 98% of the country was at one point under heat alerts, initially reports excess mortality from all causes before making a definitive heat attribution. The national health agency said last week that 7,300 excess deaths were recorded between late May and July 22. August figures were unavailable, while the preliminary estimate was based on electronic death certificates covering about 80% of total mortality.

Italy’s national heat surveillance system relies on municipal data and therefore produces figures with significant delays. Available modelling indicates about 2,700 excess deaths occurred during June 22-28 alone. Epidemiologists estimate Italy’s eventual heat-attributable death toll could reach 5,000 to 8,000.

Elsewhere, the UK Health Security Agency estimated 2,877 heat-associated deaths in England during the May and June heatwaves. Belgium reported a preliminary 39% increase in mortality, equivalent to 1,222 excess deaths, between June 18 and 29. The Netherlands recorded at least 900 additional deaths between June 22 and July 5.

A rapid modelling study cited by the European Commission estimated 1,070 excess deaths in Poland during the late-June heatwave, while Swiss public health data indicated 220 excess heat-related deaths during the same week.

Preliminary figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate roughly 40 excess deaths in each country. AFP calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40C this summer.

The World Health Organisation said in May that heat-related mortality across its European region had risen by more than 30% over the past two decades and warned that deaths are likely to increase significantly as climate change intensifies and Europe’s population ages.

By Tamilla Hasanova