Europe's security future: Time to rethink reliance on US

In a recent article for the Financial Times, the author addresses the shifting dynamics of European security in the context of changing US priorities under president-elect Donald Trump. The piece argues that Europe has relied on the US for military support for decades, but this dependence is no longer sustainable. While Europe faces a growing need for security, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, the US's commitment to defending NATO allies has become increasingly uncertain.

The article traces the evolution of US military dominance in Europe, highlighting the post-Cold War shift from significant military commitment to a more minimal involvement, as the threat of Russian expansion waned. This situation was epitomized by NATO’s expansion in 2003, when seven new members, including the Baltic states, were added to the alliance. The article points out that, at the time, US senators did not seriously consider whether the US would defend these countries in the event of a Russian attack, as they believed the very act of NATO membership would prevent aggression.

The author argues that this flawed thinking, which assumes that NATO membership guarantees security without a need for active defense, has persisted even as Europe faces new geopolitical challenges. This mindset is particularly evident in the discussions surrounding Ukraine's potential NATO membership, where the alliance has failed to intervene decisively, despite its stated commitment to collective defense.

The piece also critiques the growing American focus on Asia, with defense priorities shifting away from Europe. The article suggests that Trump’s skepticism towards defending NATO allies reflects broader American concerns about the costs and risks of military intervention. This shift, combined with growing concerns about a direct confrontation with Russia, signals a reality where European security must be primarily a European responsibility.

To avoid becoming overly dependent on the US, the article calls for European leaders to focus on "America-proofing" their defense capabilities by strengthening military production and readiness. In exchange, it suggests that the US should support European efforts to develop its defense sector and remain within NATO for a smooth transition. For Ukraine, the article warns that a US security guarantee is not a reliable safeguard and that the country must continue to bolster its own defenses to deter Russian aggression.

The Financial Times concludes by underscoring that Europe’s future security lies in its own hands, and while the US may have been a key player in European defense for decades, this reality is changing. Europe must adapt to this new geopolitical landscape, whether by strengthening its own military forces or reevaluating its reliance on the US.

By Vugar Khalilov