Evolving Sino-Russian relationship under Xi Jinping Navigating history and strategy

The article from Foreign Affairs explores the evolving and complex relationship between China and Russia, drawing parallels between the current dynamics under Xi Jinping and historical patterns dating back to the early 20th century.

It highlights how Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun, experienced various phases of Sino-Soviet relations, ranging from cooperation to tension and outright hostility, mirroring the shifting alliances and ideological rifts during the Cold War era.

The article underscores the significance of Xi Jinping's upbringing and his father's experiences in shaping his approach towards Moscow. Unlike the ideological cohesion that once united China and the Soviet Union under communism, today's partnership between Beijing and Moscow is driven more by pragmatic interests, including shared conservatism, anti-Western sentiments, and a desire to counterbalance American influence globally.

Xi Jinping's strategic manoeuvring reflects a cautious embrace of Russia, aiming to exploit opportunities for mutual benefit without becoming overly dependent or risking entanglement in Moscow's conflicts, such as the invasion of Ukraine. This contrasts starkly with historical episodes where ideological differences and personal rivalries exacerbated tensions, leading to ruptures in the alliance.

The article emphasizes the personal rapport between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin as a stabilizing factor in contemporary Sino-Russian relations, despite their differing backgrounds and personal styles. While their partnership is strategic, it remains flexible, allowing both countries to pursue their respective economic and geopolitical goals without the constraints of a formal alliance.

Furthermore, the piece acknowledges that while ideological differences no longer dominate the relationship as they did during the Cold War, strategic interests and historical grievances still influence decision-making in Beijing and Moscow. Both leaders view authoritarian governance as essential for stability and reject Western criticism of their domestic policies, reinforcing their alignment against perceived external threats.

In conclusion, the article suggests that while challenges persist in the China-Russia partnership, particularly amid global scrutiny over their actions in Ukraine, the absence of ideological disputes and a shared strategic outlook make the current alliance more resilient than previous iterations. Xi Jinping's cautious approach, informed by historical lessons of Sino-Soviet relations, seeks to maintain a balance between cooperation and autonomy, ensuring China's strategic interests are protected while managing relations with Moscow amidst shifting global dynamics.