EU’s Russian energy exit stalls as fossil fuel cash still flows to Moscow

Halfway into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has yet to sever its financial ties to Moscow through fossil fuel imports, raising doubts about its pledge to end dependency on Russian energy by 2027.

Despite 17 sanction packages and repeated commitments, Russian oil, gas, and LNG continue to flow into Europe’s economy. The bloc also imports uranium from Russia, as five EU countries—Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria—still operate Russian-designed VVER nuclear reactors, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

While some of this dependency stems from legacy infrastructure, politics plays a significant role. Slovakia and Hungary—both maintaining close ties to Moscow—are blocking the bloc’s 18th sanctions package, demanding a Commission review of the 2027 phase-out plan.

In 2024 alone, the EU spent an estimated €21.9 billion on Russian fossil fuel imports—only 1% less than the previous year. To put this in perspective, this amount surpasses the €18.7 billion in financial aid the EU provided to Ukraine during the same period.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), crude oil revenues from Russia fell by just 6% year-on-year, about €2.6 billion, mainly because Russia employs a ‘shadow fleet’ of 558 ships to circumvent restrictions. In the third year of the invasion, 61% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports, worth €83 billion, moved via these vessels.

The European Commission’s latest sanctions proposal seeks to lower the price cap on seaborne Russian crude to $45 per barrel and target the shadow fleet. Under the REPowerEU roadmap, no new gas contracts with Russia should be signed from early 2026, with all deals ending by 2027. Landlocked EU countries bound by legacy pipeline contracts have until the end of 2027 to comply.

While most Russian pipeline gas has been cut, the TurkStream pipeline still supplies the bloc, with discussions underway to expand its capacity. Russian LNG imports remain steady due to shadow fleet shipments.

Energy security in the EU balances “reliable supply, environmental protection, and affordability.” Hungary and Slovakia argue that Russian energy keeps prices low, while Germany has shifted to Norway, and France secured a 27-year gas deal with Qatar. The US and Libya are considered key alternative oil suppliers.

If the EU ends political deadlock and secures alternatives, it could slash Russian fossil fuel revenues by €51 billion annually—around 22% of Russia’s total earnings—moving closer to energy independence from the Kremlin.

By Vafa Guliyeva