Expert: Attack on Moscow parade would not win Ukraine international sympathy

Ukraine can “bring the war home” to Russia, including Moscow, political analyst Gerhard Mangott said ahead of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade, warning that attacking the event would not win Kyiv international sympathy.

The warning comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested drones could appear over the Russian capital during the high-profile celebrations, an event closely associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s projection of military strength.

Speaking to FOCUS online, Mangott said Kyiv’s threat alone demonstrated Ukraine’s growing ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.

“Ukraine is capable of truly bringing the war home, bringing it home to the capitals,” he said, adding that even the prospect of drones reaching Moscow on such a symbolic date represented “a victory for Ukraine”.

Despite the rhetoric, Mangott said an actual strike on the parade remained unlikely.

According to the analyst, Moscow has already issued warnings of a “very harsh retaliatory strike” against central Kyiv should Ukraine attempt an attack during the commemorations.

He described the warning as a “clear deterrence message”, arguing that Putin could not afford the humiliation of an incident disrupting the parade at Red Square.

“At the same time, it would also be risky for Zelenskyy,” Mangott said. 

The analyst added that global support remains strategically vital for Kyiv as the war continues.

Mangott also cautioned against taking unverified footage circulating online at face value, saying reports about extraordinary security measures around Red Square were part of an intensifying information war between Moscow and Kyiv.

“Such fakes are intended to discredit the other side and gain ground on the propaganda front,” he said.

By Aghakazim Guliyev