Fact check: Did photo show Wagner at NATO's Poland-Belarus border?

Concerns have grown among NATO nations after reports that members of the Wagner paramilitary group, supported by Russia, were in Belarus heading toward the border with Poland.

Since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's abortive mutiny in June, thousands of Wagner mercenaries have reportedly been relocating to Belarus, taking the Kremlin up on its offer for pardons in exchange for exile, Newsweek writes in its fact-check.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned in July that the Wagner Group could be planning a "hybrid attack" against his country after the paramilitary organization moved more than 100 troops near the Suwałki Gap—a strip of land along the Polish and Lithuanian border separating Belarus to the east from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west.

Amid this tension, a photo appeared on social media depicting what looked like a Wagner soldier at the Belarusian border with Poland.

A post on pro-Russian Telegram channel Topaz Penetrator, posted on August 2, 2023, showed someone in uniform, wearing PMC Wagner and Russian flag patches posing at a Polish border checkpoint.

The image was also shared on X (formerly Twitter). News feed @clashreport posted the photo on August 2, 2023, which was viewed 120,000 times, with the tweet: "A photo of a Wagner PMC member on the border with Poland is circulating on the Internet."

A photo of a Wagner PMC member on the border with Poland is circulating on the Internet. pic.twitter.com/WbKdoXdpbR

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 2, 2023

The image is not what it seems for several reasons.

The photo appears to be a manipulation of another image that shows someone with a different patch (found on Imgur via Reddit). By comparison, the photo with the PMC Wagner Patch is far less detailed. The PMC patch looks flat and does not reflect any light. The photo overall has a generally muddier appearance suggestive of image degradation either by manipulation or file compression.

The reverse image of the word "Polska" in the background of the photo shared on Telegram is also suggestive of manipulation.

Another giveaway is the flag on the uniform. A Polish flag patch can be seen in the photo shared on Imgur, while the Russian flag is on the Wagner image.

Although Wagner Group troops sometimes wear standard Russian "ratnik" uniform, and may wear Russian flag patches, photos of its forces largely show them wearing the group's insignia alone. On the balance of evidence, it therefore seems likelier that the Russian flag in the PMC photo was edited from the one posted on Imgur.

Screengrabs on Twitter also show that the Imgur photo was posted on 4Chan on July 31, 2023, two days before the Wagner patch image began circulating.

However, the Imgur photo is also somewhat unusual. The patch on the jacket reads "Comfy Happenings in Ukraine" and "/chug/." Searches of these terms reveal 4Chan archives littered with anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian material, including links to pro-Russian Telegram channels.

The same "/chug/" patch was also seen in another recent post, again, of what looks like another Polish border checkpoint. This image was also manipulated elsewhere. The "/chug/"patch was changed to a logo for a pro-Wagner Telegram channel.

The purpose of the "/chug/" photos is unclear. It may be part of a pro-Russian or Wagner trolling effort but there is not enough verifiable information to confirm this.

It's worth noting that while the Polish checkpoint posts in the photos do appear to be legitimate, none of the locations in the photos could be verified. The backgrounds are not sufficiently distinct to make forensic image analysis simple or even possible.

In any case, it does appear the picture of the Wagner soldier was manipulated, even if the original was taken by, potentially, a Wagner sympathizer.

Newsweek has contacted the Polish Ministry of National Defense for comment.