Finland does not fear Russia, says presidential frontrunner

Finland is as safe as it has been for centuries and does not fear any provocations or attacks from neighbouring Russia, according to the frontrunner to become the Nordic country’s next president.

Alex Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister, told the Financial Times that a “triple lock” of its strong military, new membership of NATO, and a recent defence co-operation agreement with the US had significantly increased its deterrence.

“Finland is in one of the safest positions that it has been in throughout its history,” he said. “What we are doing is setting up deterrence, and I think we’ve succeeded in that very well.”

Finnish voters go to the polls on Sunday to choose who should succeed Sauli Niinistö as the country’s president, who takes the lead role on foreign and security policy in Finland. Stubb is favourite in the polls and looks set to face off against former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto in a second round on February 11.

According to a survey published Monday by the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper, Stubb was credited with 22 per cent of voting intentions, Haavisto was second with 20 per cent and the former leader of the populist Finns party Jussi Halla-aho, polled third at 18 per cent. Stubb would beat both in a second round, the poll predicted. 

Stubb has in turn touted his experience of standing up to Russia after its war in Georgia in 2008 during an eight-year stint in government that included being premier, as well as minister of finance, foreign affairs and EU matters.

“People have to understand that for us, foreign and security policy is always an existential question,” he said.

Stubb has come under fire from some quarters for his stance on China, insisting that Finland and the EU should “de-risk” but not “decouple” from it. He added: “A lot of people are lumping China, Russia, North Korea and Iran into some kind of evil axis. I disagree with that analysis. I don’t think China wants to be seen as part of that axis.”

Asked about the possibility of a second presidency in the US for Donald Trump, Stubb stressed that Trump had been correct to point the finger at countries not spending enough on defence.

“There’s a reason why we had the fastest Nato negotiations in the history of the alliance. It is in the military, strategic, political interests for the United States to be engaged with Finland,” he added.

Finland joined NATO last April in less than a year after having applied to join — a feat achieved while Haavisto was foreign minister and prompted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has issued veiled threats in response and sent undocumented migrants from the Middle East and Africa across its border, prompting Helsinki to close all its crossings along the 1,340km-long frontier.

Other countries in the region, notably Sweden and Estonia, have issued loud warnings in recent weeks about the possibility of war with Russia.

Swedish military and civil emergency officials last week sparked controversy when advising their countrymen to stock up on essentials and prepare for potential war. Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas earlier this month said Europe needed to get ready for a potential war with Russia in the next three years.

Haavisto, like Stubb, employed a much calmer Finnish rhetoric in a separate interview with the FT.

“The mood is cautious. We can expect many things, we can expect many dirty tricks from Russia’s side,” he said, given his decades-long preparedness for a potential conflict with Russia. “The mood in Finland is that there is nothing new in this. We have seen this Russia before in history. We don’t have to be extremely emotional,” said the former Green minister.

He added that he had been “surprised” by the tone of the debate in neighbouring Sweden, which has also applied to join NATO but is still waiting for Turkey and Hungary’s approval.

Haavisto said that NATO made Finland — which already has one of the largest militaries in Europe — “much more secure”.