FT: European heatwave wipes €2 billion from grain harvest value Analysis estimates

Europe's June heatwave wiped an estimated €2 billion from the value of grain production across the European Union and the United Kingdom, with France and Hungary suffering the largest losses, according to analysis based on revised harvest forecasts by the European grain traders' association Coceral and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

Nearly 9 million tonnes were removed from grain production estimates in the four weeks following the heatwave. The ECIU estimated the lost output was worth around €2.1 billion at farm-gate prices, representing about 5% of estimated 2025 production value, Financial Times (FT) reports.

Coceral said the heatwave hit wheat during a critical stage of kernel development in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary. Around half of the reduction came from maize, mainly used as livestock feed, with the EU and UK maize forecast cut from 57.2 million tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes.

Benoît Merlo, who grows cereals and raises beef cattle on a 300-hectare organic farm in eastern France, said:

“I’ve been working on my farm for 10 years to make it more resilient through cover crops, crop rotations and species adapted to hotter and drier conditions,” he said.

“But with temperatures exceeding 38C for weeks on end, everything is breaking down. I’m expecting yield losses of at least 50 per cent, or even 70 per cent, for certain crops, such as soya. We’re no longer heading for a crash — we’re already there.”

France accounted for almost half of the estimated losses, with its grain forecast reduced by 4.1 million tonnes, worth about €891 million. Hungary's forecast was cut by 2.4 million tonnes, valued at €444 million, while Spain and Germany also recorded significant reductions.

The smaller harvest could increase EU demand for imported maize from suppliers including Ukraine and Brazil, while reduced French wheat output may limit exports to North and West Africa.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said:

“This will hit farmers in the pockets, reducing their income and undermining European food security at the same time.”

The losses come as EU governments negotiate reforms to the bloc's Common Agricultural Policy. Théo Paquet, senior policy officer at the European Environmental Bureau, said current subsidies “continue to fund harmful practices that contribute directly to these crises — fuelling an expensive and unsustainable feedback loop”.