German chancellor tackles EU expansion, internal reform challenges Path forward

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a pivotal moment in shaping Europe’s future as he prioritizes expanding the EU to include Ukraine and other potential members.

In the mid-2010s, as the European Union grappled with one crisis after another, Germany, particularly under Chancellor Angela Merkel, was the pivotal force around which Europe revolved, Caliber.Az reports citing the foreign media.

Southern European countries struggled with the austerity measures imposed as part of their bailouts, while Eastern European nations criticized Merkel for not taking a firmer stance against Russia following its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Despite these grievances, Germany remained a dominant player with few alternatives.

Today, however, the narrative has shifted. In Brussels, discussions are now dominated by perceptions of German ineptitude. The dysfunction within Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition is creating ripple effects across Europe, as internal disagreements among Germany’s governing parties complicate European affairs. Allies are recalibrating their strategies to navigate around Germany. Unlike Merkel’s methodical approach to diplomacy, Scholz seems to lack the same skill in negotiation. At EU summits, he articulates Germany's stance but appears taken aback when others do not align with it.

The challenges facing German leadership are neither new nor easily resolved. The complexities of coalitions, judicial constraints, and Germany's federal structure often hinder decision-making. However, there have been successes: the Zeitenwende represents a significant shift in Germany’s foreign and security policies, introduced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Germany is upgrading its military capabilities, providing arms to Ukraine, and overhauling its energy policy. Despite these strides, Germany's partners frequently remain disillusioned.

This disappointment arises because many take Scholz at his word when he asserts, as he did upon taking office in 2021, that Germany has a “special responsibility” for Europe. This responsibility is even more pronounced amid a lack of leadership elsewhere. France, Germany’s traditional but often unreliable partner, is currently paralyzed due to Emmanuel Macron’s controversial decision to hold early parliamentary elections last month. While other leaders play crucial roles on specific issues, none match Germany’s overall influence. Without proactive German support, several key items on the EU’s agenda risk falling into uncertainty.

One of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s top priorities is expanding the EU to include Ukraine and other nations, a goal he has championed as part of a vision for a "geopolitical Europe." To avoid bureaucratic delays, Germany must confront and persuade skeptical governments. Additionally, the EU will need significant reforms to accommodate its expansion, such as revising costly agricultural policies and reducing national veto powers. Advancing the capital-markets union—an important initiative aimed at boosting private investment in Europe—and addressing whether the EU’s internal-market and state-aid rules are adequate in light of rising US-China tensions will also place substantial demands on Germany.

On a positive note, Scholz has a strong grasp of these issues and benefits from the support of Ursula von der Leyen, one of the most influential presidents of the European Commission in decades. As a former German cabinet minister, von der Leyen is attuned to her homeland’s sensitivities, despite her current opposition party affiliation. With her recent reappointment for a second five-year term, she possesses significant political capital.

However, time is a pressing concern. All three of Germany’s ruling parties faced setbacks in last month’s European elections and are bracing for further challenges in state elections this September. As attention shifts toward Germany’s national election in autumn 2025, there is a risk that parties may prioritize domestic issues and reduce their focus on European matters. With escalating geopolitical risks and a stagnant European economy, such an approach would be both short-sighted and perilous. Scholz and Germany need to remain proactive and engaged.