Goals and consequences of removing Cyprus arms embargo by US Caliber.Az geopolitical review

Recently, in an interview with CNN Turk, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Türkiye's plans to strengthen its military presence in Northern Cyprus due to the US lifting of restrictions on military trade with the Republic of Cyprus. Ankara saw the US decision as a clear aid to Cyprus and Greece, which would multiply threats to peace and stability in the eastern Mediterranean.

Erdogan stressed that Türkiye could not remain indifferent to the fate of Turkish Cypriots living in the north of the island, as lifting the embargo could contribute to an arms race there. The media is talking about the intention of the Turkish side to supply the Cypriot Turks with weapons for defensive purposes and not to deviate from its position under any circumstances. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has officially stated recently that the US military and political decision to support the interests of the Greek side, especially now when Türkiye and Greece are almost on the brink of a serious conflict over differences in the Aegean Sea, increases the possibility of a confrontation between the two parts of the island and in general creates real preconditions for escalation of tensions in the region.

According to Anadolu Agency, during a recent conversation with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the Turkish foreign minister asked him directly who the US was arming Nicosia against. It is not reported about the US reaction to Cavusoglu's question; however, it is easy to guess that ideologists of the US foreign policy confined themselves in their traditional style to declarative statements about the need to preserve peace and security in the region and the world. In the meantime, it was the Turkish side that offered the Americans financial help to the Greek Cypriots if needed, but of course, they never offered any arms supplies.

The Americans have once again shown that their personal ambitions are above the welfare of any other state. There is more than one example of how the presence of Americans in any part of the world leads to destabilisation and unrest. Therefore, there is no doubt that by adopting a unilateral stance in the Turkish-Greek crisis, the US is aiming to bring the two countries to a state of war. First and foremost, to weaken Türkiye, which, even as a member of the North Atlantic bloc, finds ways to pursue its own foreign policy, without the instructions of Washington and Brussels. Therefore, Washington's lifting of the arms embargo against Cyprus is above all a pretext for exacerbating Turkish-Greek relations, which are already far from friendly.

This US move was greatly facilitated by the well-known Turkophobe Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, who co-authored the 2019 Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act.

Meanwhile, the arms embargo on Cyprus was imposed in 1987 to support a settlement with the prospect of uniting the Greek and Turkish parts of the island. It was partially lifted back in 2020 when the US lifted its ban on non-lethal defence supplies to the island. At that time, the White House put forward an important condition - to prevent Russian warships from docking in Cypriot seaports, promising for that a complete lifting of restrictions. This condition of the Americans was not fulfilled by the Greeks immediately, but only after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Subsequently, Moscow included Cyprus among the unfriendly countries. And while Greece had previously pursued a pro-Russian policy, after joining the anti-Russian sanctions Athens took the side of the US, an opportunity the Americans are now using against Türkiye's interests as well.

Cavusoglu described Athens' position as serving Washington. He pointed out that Türkiye sees Greece as a tool used by the US to harm Ankara.

However, Türkiye has so far limited its diplomatic messages to Greece, giving it a chance to rethink its policy of aggression and start negotiations with the Turkish side on the disputed islands in the Aegean Sea. According to TRT Haber, Turkish National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar recently asked the Greek government to enter into negotiations as soon as possible to solve the problems.

"The best way would be to start negotiations as soon as possible to solve our problems through peaceful ways and methods and dialogue," Akar suggested, warning however that Türkiye is by no means showing weakness and will defend both its rights and interests in the Aegean Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus and the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

However, the Greek side does not seem to sufficiently assess the possible consequences of the political intrigue in which its partners in the West and the United States are purposefully trying to involve it. According to Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, Athens has the support of all Europe and NATO allies in its confrontation with Türkiye. This view is not shared by Ankara and, as President Erdogan said on the matter, Athens is deeply mistaken in thinking that it will be saved by the support coming from the US and European countries.

Türkiye's sober and balanced stance, in this case, is also directed at the interests of Greece itself and is completely at odds with the US objectives in Cyprus. So everything here is quite clear. To date, Türkiye's main demand is that Greece demilitarizes the islands, a condition that is fully consistent with international law. And so far Ankara has offered the Greek side a negotiated solution to the problem. Time will tell whether Greece has the political will to enter into a dialogue with Türkiye that would defy US interests. What is clear, however, is that the abolition of the arms embargo, which effectively freed the Greeks' hands, would unambiguously torpedo the peaceful settlement of Greek-Turkish relations.