Greenland’s future in focus: US mulls “Compact of Free Association”

U.S. officials are actively discussing a plan to bring Greenland into America’s sphere of influence by offering the island a "Compact of Free Association" (COFA) with the United States.

This plan, which draws from existing agreements the U.S. has with several Pacific Island nations, is being considered as the U.S. seeks to strengthen ties with Greenland, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions, cited by Reuters.

A COFA agreement, which has been previously used with the small island nations of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau, would provide Greenland with a unique relationship with the U.S. While specific terms of COFA agreements vary depending on the signatory, the U.S. typically offers a wide range of services, including military protection, mail delivery, emergency management, and other vital support. In return, the U.S. maintains the ability to operate freely within COFA countries, with trade largely being duty-free.

The idea of a COFA agreement with Greenland comes after President Donald Trump revived his ambitions regarding the island. During his first term, Trump notably proposed the idea of acquiring Greenland, an idea that was swiftly rejected by Denmark, which governs the island. However, the U.S. administration continues to seek ways to expand its influence over Greenland, driven by its strategic importance, particularly due to its untapped mineral resources, which are critical for both high-tech industries and military applications.

The proposal, while still in its early stages, does not go as far as Trump’s earlier ambition to absorb Greenland into the U.S. Instead, a COFA agreement would grant Greenland a high degree of autonomy while establishing a formalised partnership with the U.S. While such a move might appeal to some factions in Greenland, where there is ongoing interest in independence from Denmark, public opinion on being part of the U.S. remains divided.

Sources indicate that the talks have involved key figures from the National Security Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, and the National Economic Council. Markus Thomi, the acting senior director for the National Security Council's Western Hemisphere section, and David Copley, a key official within the NEDC, are among those involved in the discussions.

However, to proceed with a COFA, Greenland would likely need to separate from Denmark, as COFA agreements have only ever been extended to independent nations. While polls show that many Greenlanders favour independence, there is less enthusiasm for joining the United States.

Despite Denmark’s firm rejection of the idea, U.S. officials argue that Greenland holds immense geopolitical significance due to its vast mineral resources, which remain largely untapped due to labour shortages and insufficient infrastructure. In response to this, the U.S. has been helping Greenland diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on Denmark. U.S. agencies like the Development Finance Corporation and Export-Import Bank could play a key role in this process, including in projects like the Tanbreez Project, which involves the extraction of rare earth minerals on the island.

The U.S. sees a COFA as an effective way to address concerns over Greenland’s security and its growing importance in global trade and politics. However, the move faces substantial hurdles, including the need for Denmark’s approval and overcoming local resistance in Greenland itself. Additionally, COFA agreements have previously faced challenges in the Pacific Islands, where political issues have arisen over funding and foreign influence operations.

At the heart of the discussions is Greenland’s strategic value, with officials noting its vital mineral resources and its significance as a potential counter to Chinese influence in the region. Despite the obstacles, U.S. officials believe that a COFA could be an elegant solution to ensure Greenland’s future security while solidifying its partnership with the U.S.

By Tamilla Hasanova