Guardian: Farage’s reform surges in wake-up call from Scotland

In a stark warning from Scotland’s political heartland, a recent Guardian opinion piece unpacks the troubling implications of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by election, a contest that may seem like a minor skirmish but could foreshadow a seismic shift in UK politics. Though Labour managed to clinch victory, the real headline lies elsewhere: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK stunned observers by securing over 26 per cent of the vote, outperforming every Scottish poll and trailing the winner by just 1,500 votes. This surge is not merely a local curiosity — it may signal the beginning of a broader, unsettling transformation.

As The Guardian notes, Reform UK's unexpected strength in a historically inhospitable landscape for the hard-right suggests it is “mobilising previous non-voters whom pollsters are not picking up.” The party’s sudden rise indicates not just disillusionment with traditional options, but a new alignment driven by populist appeal. This trend, though still nascent in Scotland, has already shaken political systems across Europe and North America.

But there's a fragility beneath Reform’s momentum. The piece points to the resignation of its chair, Zia Yusuf, despite his success in professionalising the party, warning of the “perennial threat of internal chaos.” Like UKIP before it, Reform’s fate remains tightly bound to Farage himself — a strength and a vulnerability in equal measure.

Meanwhile, the SNP’s dramatic 17-point loss underscores internal confusion and voter fatigue. Activists are split on whether the defeat was due to a diluted stance on independence or neglect of everyday concerns. Either way, the piece suggests SNP voters stayed home — a reverse of the energy propelling Reform.

More telling still is the Conservative Party’s collapse, polling a paltry 6%. This, The Guardian argues, marks “the end stage of a process kickstarted by David Cameron in 2010,” where appeasing the right has only strengthened its most radical elements. The death of the traditional centre-right, replaced by a hard-right contemptuous of democratic norms, reflects a broader Western crisis.

The article draws a sharp line under Reform’s “racist claim that the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, would ‘prioritise the Pakistani community,’” highlighting the disturbing fact that such rhetoric still finds traction among “hardcore Scottish unionists.” Despite winning, Labour’s vote share actually dropped — a sobering reality that, according to pollster John Curtice, confirms the party is “not on course to retake the seat of Scottish power.”

The Guardian warns Labour not to underestimate Farageism’s reach. Drawing comparisons to Hillary Clinton’s strategic failure in promoting Trump, the piece critiques Labour’s reliance on a “squeeze” tactic: betting that fear of Farage will outweigh dislike for Starmer. But as Farage excites non-voters, this ceiling may rise dangerously fast.

The takeaway is urgent: if progressives want to block a Reform-led future, they must consider “a pact between the Green party and other leftwing candidates” and campaign aggressively in marginal seats. The radical right is not a fringe threat. As the central belt of Scotland just reminded us, it is knocking loudly on the mainstream’s door — and no part of the UK is immune.

By Sabina Mammadli