How can Ukraine leverage F-16s for tactical air superiority and battlefield breakthroughs?

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s, modern Western fighter jets, to enhance its dwindling fleet of aging Soviet-era aircraft. A significant challenge is how Ukraine can best "optimize the use of the relatively small number of F-16s" it will acquire and the limited availability of trained pilots.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s, modern Western fighter jets, to enhance its dwindling fleet of aging Soviet-era aircraft. A significant challenge is how Ukraine can best "optimize the use of the relatively small number of F-16s" it will acquire and the limited availability of trained pilots, according to airpower experts.

They suggest that Ukraine could use these new fighter jets as part of an integrated air-ground campaign to achieve brief, localized air superiority during larger operations aimed at securing breakthroughs in specific areas, Caliber.Az reports citing the foreign media.

Retired US Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, now the dean of the Mitchell Institute, and Christopher Bowie, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, emphasized in a new Mitchell Institute report that "by conducting an integrated air-ground campaign to secure air superiority in the times and places of its choosing, Ukraine can further its military's momentum on the battlefield and begin reversing the territorial gains the Russian army has achieved up to this point."

Air superiority is defined as a condition in which one side can carry out its operations with minimal interference from the enemy.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia have achieved widespread or significant air superiority in the ongoing conflict, though Russia managed to establish temporary, localized control of the skies around Avdiivka in February. This limited air support enabled Russian forces to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and capture the area.

In their report, Deptula and Bowie emphasize the "absolute necessity of air superiority to achieve a decisive advantage" in the war. They note that without such an advantage, the conflict remains a "relative stalemate," akin to World War I trench warfare. As Ukraine begins receiving F-16 jets from Western partners, it will need to reassess the deployment of its air force to better support ground operations.

The effectiveness of Ukraine's new F-16 fleet will depend on several factors: the number of jets received, the types and quantities of armaments, the specific models of jets, the proficiency and number of trained pilots, and the maintenance operations for the planes. Additionally, the survivability and strategic application of the jets will play crucial roles.

Mixing capabilities for a breakthrough

"The first step," the authors wrote in their report, "is to work with the Ukrainian army to determine, across the entire Ukrainian line of engagement with the Russians, the optimal location (potentially multiple locations) and times to gain air superiority."

Next, the Ukrainian Air Force would need to collaborate with ground forces on an extensive deception plan, deploying troops across various axes of the battlefield to mislead Russia about the true location of a major attack. This strategy could provide Ukraine with an element of surprise, which was notably absent in its unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive.

Ukraine could then aim to disrupt the Russian response by deploying "hundreds, preferably thousands" of drones against a range of targets, such as energy production and storage facilities, further confusing Russian troops and depleting their interceptor missiles. Alongside unmanned systems, Ukraine's ground forces could utilize long-range weapons like US-provided HIMARS and ATACMS to target Russian radars, surface-to-air missile systems, and artillery. The Ukrainian Air Force could support these operations with HARM missiles.

This multifaceted approach, combining deception, drone warfare, and coordinated air-ground attacks, could potentially shift the balance on the battlefield in favor of Ukraine.

Integral to this operation would be partner-provided intelligence, which would enhance the quality, timing, and effectiveness of the attack. Extensive electronic warfare to jam Russian reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities is also crucial to further disrupt their response.

As Ukraine's ground forces begin their advance, the movement of long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems would be essential to engage and deter Russian fighter jets. This maneuver would set up Ukraine's air force to gain air superiority over specific areas, enabling their pilots to strike Russian units, logistics, and transportation networks, and prevent the movement of reinforcements.

All of this requires a truly integrated approach, Deptula and Bowie wrote. While numerous potential challenges exist, such as insufficient resources and training, the results could be promising. This strategy could give Ukraine bursts of air superiority in specific areas, which can be exploited for breakthroughs, potentially leading to a collapse of Russian positions.