How F-35 jets pushing Ukraine's case for F-16s

Global air forces transitioning to Lockheed Martin's prized F-35 fifth-generation jets are freeing up F-16s for countries like Ukraine, the former head of the defence giant's F-35 program told Newsweek.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drove many nations to turn to the F-35 in a rapidly-changing security environment, former Lockheed Martin F-35 general manager, Tom Burbage, told Newsweek.

Some of these countries had "been on the fence" about procuring F-35s before early 2022, added Burbage, who is co-author of F-35: The Inside Story of the Lightning II. But with Finland having hopped onto the F-35 program, joining other nations bordering the Arctic such as Canada and Norway, another group of "natural alliances" is coalescing in the Pacific, he said.

Less than a month after the start of full-scale war in Ukraine, Berlin announced it would spend €10 billion ($11.2 billion) on acquiring 35 F-35s. Finland is in the process of replacing its F/A-18 Hornets with 64 F-35A jets, and Switzerland agreed in September 2022 to buy 36 F-35As, which will be delivered before 2030.

In late June, the US State Department approved the sale of F-35s to the Czech Republic after Prague said it hoped to replace its leased Swedish-made Gripen jets with the US fighter. Poland, South Korea, Israel, Singapore, Japan and Australia are among the 17 countries committed to acquiring F-35s, with two others on the horizon.

With powerhouse militaries across the globe moving towards F-35s, "that does free up the F-16" for air forces such as Ukraine's, he said.

F-16s are "slowly becoming 'surplus' because of the F-35 orders," retired Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, a former senior commander in the UK's Royal Air Force (RAF), told Newsweek.

Although it will take years to phase in F-35s for countries now opting for the US fifth-generation fighters, "it would seem natural that any country that's allied with the US and NATO forces would eventually evolve into the F-35," Burbage continued.

Ukraine has pleaded with its Western backers for advanced fighter jets, although F-35s have never been on the table. For months, decisions have stalled over whether to equip Ukraine with a version of Lockheed's F-16 Fighting Falcon, an older but still highly effective fourth-generation fighter.

The jets would offer a significant step-up in capabilities for Ukraine, which currently flies aging, Soviet-era aircraft. The transition to Western jets would also bring a new style of fighting to Ukraine's military, experts say, with the change of platforms bringing Western military doctrine to Kyiv's ex-Soviet air force.

No nation has yet agreed to furnish Ukraine with the jets, but several NATO countries have pledged to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. Increasingly seen as inevitable, Western officials and analysts have nonetheless reiterated that providing F-16s would mark a long-term commitment to Ukraine's air force and that several complications would come with sending completely new systems to Kyiv's military.

US President Joe Biden "has given a green light and we will allow, permit, support, facilitate and in fact provide the necessary tools for Ukrainians to begin being trained on F-16s, as soon as the Europeans are prepared," national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday.

On Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told media that the Netherlands and Denmark were making "progress on a cohesive training plan," adding they were working on helping "some very eager Ukrainian pilots learn to fly fourth-generation aircraft."

"The Russians have hundreds of fourth- and fifth-generation airframes," General Mark Milley, the US's top soldier, then told reporters. Ukraine would need a "large number of aircraft" to match the number of jets at Moscow's disposal, he added, saying it will take "years to train the pilots, years to do the maintenance and sustainment, years to generate that degree of financial support to do that."

Training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s is expected to begin in August or early September, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Radio Liberty earlier this month. The first F-16s could take to Ukraine's skies by the end of March 2024, he added.

Kyiv reiterated its calls for F-16s this week, saying the air defence systems it operates against Russia are not sufficient to protect its territory and citizens.

"When we have F-16s, it will allow us to significantly increase the percentage of air targets that are carrying out terrorist attacks on the territory of Ukraine," Ukrainian air force spokesperson, Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said.

But US Lieutenant General Douglas Sims said during a Pentagon briefing on July 13 said that the conditions for using F-16s in Ukraine are "probably not ideal" at the moment, adding that Moscow's forces "still possess some air defence capability."

"The number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what's going on right now," he added.

F-35 stealth jets are the latest in fifth-generation technology, hailed by Lockheed as "far and away the world's most advanced multi-role fighter," with nearly 1,000 delivered to air forces across the world.

After hitches, bad press and other complications plaguing its development program, Lockheed Martin said earlier this week that it would have to scale back deliveries of F-35s to its customers because of problems with pre-loaded software.

Lockheed Martin will be able to deliver between 100 and 120 F-35s before the end of the year, rather than an estimated figure of 153, according to CEO James Taiclet in comments reported by DefenseOne on Tuesday. It is not clear how this will impact the fulfilment of F-35 orders.

If Ukraine secures F-16s, this "will further advance their potential membership in NATO," Lockheed Martin's Burbage said.

At some point in the future, Ukraine could even become an F-35 customer, retired RAF commander Bagwell suggested, although "not yet."

"As NATO continues to transition its combat air power standard from the F-16 to the F-35, it will have a strategic implication for future incursions in Ukraine," Burbage added.

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for comment via email. The Pentagon declined to comment.