How US-China bipolarity defines Asia

The Foreign Affairs article discusses the current state of power dynamics in Asia, arguing that the region is predominantly bipolar, with the United States and China as the two dominant superpowers. This contrasts with the narratives that China is an uncontestable regional force, that US primacy is intact, or that a multipolar Indo-Pacific is emerging. The analysis, based on the Asia Power Index created by the Lowy Institute, reveals a stable duopoly where the US retains a slight edge over China but where both powers coexist as peer competitors.

The article highlights the nuanced balance between the US and China, emphasizing that while China has significantly increased its power, particularly in economic terms, it has not eclipsed the US in a manner comparable to the historical power transitions. Instead, Asia’s bipolarity provides stability, as opposed to the multipolarity seen in Europe and the Middle East, which can lead to regional chaos and conflict.

The piece argues that while US allies such as Japan and Australia are strengthening their security ties with Washington, their military and economic capabilities still fall short when compared to China. For instance, Japan and India, despite having large militaries, do not possess the same level of military or economic influence as China. The article also notes that recent US alliances and defense partnerships, like AUKUS, though beneficial, do not significantly alter the fundamental balance of power.

Furthermore, the article suggests that the US should focus on maintaining its current position as a key player in a bipolar Asia rather than attempting to restore a previous level of dominance. It recommends enhancing military presence in the region and increasing diplomatic and economic engagement with nonaligned countries to counterbalance China's growing influence. The goal should be to preserve the stability of bipolarity, which is seen as the most favorable scenario for both the US and the region.

This comprehensive analysis underscores that the US and China are the primary influencers in Asia, with the region’s stability hinging on the balance between these two powers, rather than a broader multipolar dynamic.