How US policy whiplash undermines Ukraine’s war effort An incisive look by The Atlantic

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is not only a test of military resilience but also of diplomatic consistency. As detailed in a compelling article by The Atlantic, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces a precarious situation largely shaped by the erratic nature of U.S. support under President Donald Trump’s administration. Unlike a business CEO navigating tariffs, Zelenskyy is fighting for survival—yet he finds himself similarly hamstrung by unpredictable U.S. weapon shipments.

The article highlights how the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again decisions regarding arms deliveries have created a strategic and logistical nightmare for Ukraine’s military. In late June, the U.S. abruptly suspended a critical shipment of arms citing domestic stockpile concerns, only to reverse course days later after Trump’s direct intervention. This vacillation disrupts Ukrainian war planning at a time when Russian missile and drone attacks are escalating, making the unpredictability more dangerous than the mere absence of weapons.

Military experts and former U.S. officials emphasise that uncertainty over arms supplies forces Ukraine to constantly adapt battlefield strategies, sometimes abandoning defence of vulnerable areas or scrambling for replacement parts. The article points out how these shifts drain Ukrainian resources and morale, adding stress to an already fragile frontline.

Further complicating matters is the political backdrop. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has cast a shadow over U.S.-Ukraine relations for years, including his impeachment over withholding aid to pressure Zelenskyy politically. The erratic arms policy mirrors Trump’s approach to tariffs—flip-flopping and viewing assistance through a lens of American self-interest rather than steadfast alliance.

The article also illuminates the wider diplomatic consequences. Russia, witnessing American indecisiveness, may interpret it as an invitation to intensify aggression, thereby undermining any prospects for meaningful negotiations. Zelenskyy’s frustration echoes in a candid analogy comparing the U.S. weapons flow to a roulette wheel, with “zero” as the safest bet.

Despite these challenges, Zelenskyy is working to reduce dependence on the U.S. by ramping up joint weapons production with European allies and boosting Ukraine’s own manufacturing capacity. Yet certain critical systems—such as Patriot missiles—remain uniquely American and essential for Kyiv’s defence, underscoring the continuing need for reliable U.S. support.

The article underscores that while President Trump has recently pledged to resume weapons shipments, details remain vague, and no new congressional funding has been requested. With existing approved supplies expected to run out soon, Ukraine faces the prospect of a prolonged supply gap, forcing it to rely on slow procurement and long-term contracts.

By Vugar Khalilov