ISW: Russia refuses full ceasefire without precondition of sanctions relief

Russia is unlikely to agree to a full ceasefire without conditions within the next three weeks, as it has insisted on sanctions relief from the West as a precondition for a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Kremlin has made it clear that it will not honor the agreed ceasefire until the United States lifts sanctions on Russia's state-owned agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, as well as other unnamed financial entities involved in global food and fertilizer trade, Caliber.Az reports, citing the think tank.

On March 25, the Kremlin reiterated its position, signaling that the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea would remain on hold until these sanctions are lifted. This stance is part of Russia’s broader effort to extract further concessions from the West, with the European Union (EU) also under pressure to reinstate Rosselkhozbank’s access to the SWIFT international banking system. This demand is seen as a test to gauge whether the US will engage with Russia's requests and push European partners to support sanctions relief.

On March 11, the US and Ukraine proposed temporary ceasefires to halt strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. However, discussions between US and Ukrainian officials regarding the terms of these ceasefires have continued over the past three weeks, indicating that the specifics of the agreement have not yet been fully solidified. 

As of now, it seems unlikely that the US, Ukraine, and Russia will reach an agreement on a broader ceasefire within the next three weeks. In a March 30 statement, US President Donald Trump referred to a "psychological deadline" for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire, signaling that Russia’s use of the Black Sea ceasefire as leverage is stalling progress toward a broader agreement. 

Trump emphasized that this delay is part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to secure further concessions from the West. When asked about the possibility of a land warfare ceasefire, Trump responded, "it's a psychological deadline," further indicating the tense nature of the negotiations. He added, "if I think [Russia] is tapping [the United States] along, I will not be happy about it."

Additionally, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, in a meeting with Trump on March 29, proposed April 20 as a potential deadline for a "full ceasefire without any conditions." This date has been suggested as a possible target to finalize a broader ceasefire agreement.

By Naila Huseynova