Iran prepares for bigger war as trust in Trump deal collapses

Iran is preparing for the possibility of a wider and more sustained conflict with the United States and its regional allies, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis that highlights a growing gap between Washington’s expectation of diplomacy and Tehran’s preparations for another round of fighting. The analysis says Iran’s hard-line leadership has used the recent period of negotiations not to move decisively toward peace, but to strengthen its military, security apparatus and regional alliances.

The divergence has become one of the central obstacles to ending the conflict. After President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June, U.S. officials hoped an agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin winding down the war. The proposed arrangement included sanctions waivers, access to billions of dollars in frozen funds and the prospect of a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while Iran was expected to reopen Hormuz and negotiate over its nuclear programme.

Instead, according to the Journal’s analysis, Iranian security leaders interpreted the agreement as an opportunity to prepare for a larger confrontation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps expanded cooperation with allied militias in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, while Iranian forces increased missile and drone production and strengthened positions around the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

The strategy reflects a broader shift in Tehran’s thinking. Iranian officials increasingly appear to believe that the conflict is not over and that another major confrontation may be unavoidable.

“There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” said Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defence analyst close to the Iranian government. “What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of ‘salami-slicing’ tactics—limited, incremental escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation.”

The Revolutionary Guard has also gained greater influence over Iran’s military and internal security structures. Veteran commanders have been elevated to senior positions, while the Basij militia has been tasked with expanding its intelligence role. New leadership appointments emphasise offensive operations and preparations for prolonged confrontation rather than a return to peacetime politics.

Iran’s military capabilities have suffered significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes, but the Journal says Tehran has been rebuilding infrastructure and restoring access to missile bases faster than expected. Gulf officials are consequently preparing for continued fighting and prolonged disruption to energy supplies.

For Washington, the problem is that economic pressure and diplomatic incentives have so far failed to produce the expected change in Tehran’s behaviour. For Iran, meanwhile, negotiations remain clouded by deep suspicion of U.S. intentions.

“For the regime, ‘the baseline is war,’” said Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran. “Iran will remain on a wartime footing, preparing for a subsequent attack.”

By Sabina Mammadli