Iran’s regional influence faces challenge in evolving Iraqi power landscape An article by Foreign Affairs

While a future peace agreement with the United States could eventually ease sanctions on Iran and reintegrate its economy into global markets, leaving the country in a better spot as it was before the outbreak of hostilities, analysts argue the recent conflict has already weakened one of Tehran's most important sources of regional influence: its political and military leverage in Iraq.

Iran's long-standing influence over its western neighbour is beginning to erode as key Iraqi Shiite militias distance themselves from Tehran and move closer to the Iraqi state, according to an analysis on the two countries' changing dynamics, published by Foreign Affairs.

Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran has built extensive influence inside Iraq by cultivating ties with Shiite political parties, security forces and armed groups. Iranian institutions helped mediate disputes between rival political factions while supporting successive governments in Baghdad.

Tehran also backed many of the paramilitary groups that played a central role in defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2017.

However, resentment toward Iran has grown among many Iraqis in recent years, particularly after Iranian-backed militias were accused of participating in the violent suppression of anti-corruption protests in 2019 and 2020.

According to the Foreign Affairs magazine, recent political developments have accelerated that shift.

"Now, the tumult of recent months has further tilted Iraqis against Iran's desire to make their country a staging ground of resistance to the United States and Israel. Leaders of political parties and militia groups that once hewed close to Tehran are pulling away," the journal wrote.

One of the most significant developments came in early June, when fighters from Saraya al-Salam, the militia loyal to influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, gathered in Samarra to surrender their weapons to the Iraqi government.

The move marked the group's withdrawal from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organisation of mostly Shiite militias that was formally incorporated into Iraq's security structure in 2016 but has continued to include factions maintaining independent command structures and, in many cases, close ties to Iran.

Saraya al-Salam became the first major militia to leave the coalition. It was later followed by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, another influential militia widely regarded as one of Iran's closest allies in Iraq, which also announced plans to withdraw from the PMF.

Although several prominent Iranian-backed armed groups remain committed to advancing Tehran's regional interests, Foreign Affairs argues that the fragmentation of the PMF represents a significant setback for Iran's influence.

The publication notes that while Iran's broader "Axis of Resistance" has suffered major losses since Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, Iraq had until recently remained one of Tehran's strongest regional footholds.

"That position is now unraveling; Iran's allied militias are being pushed toward the margins of Iraqi politics. And as Tehran's hold loosens, Iraq glimpses a tantalizing future—one in which it might set its own path, free from the direction of the Islamic Republic," the journal wrote.

For years, Iraqi governments allowed PMF factions to exercise considerable influence while benefiting from state funding and legal recognition. Although the coalition formally reports to the prime minister, many groups retained separate chains of command and continued to answer primarily to their own leadership.

According to the analysis, Iraq's newly formed government under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has made reducing the political and military influence of independent militias a central objective. The government is encouraging PMF factions to disarm or integrate fully into Iraq's official security institutions, with the aim of restoring the state's monopoly on the use of force.

Saraya al-Salam has gone furthest by committing to full integration into the Iraqi armed forces. Asaib Ahl al-Haq has also indicated it is prepared to disarm and place its fighters under government command.

Foreign Affairs suggests that, beyond domestic considerations, these moves may also reflect an effort by influential Iraqi leaders to improve relations with both Baghdad and Washington while reducing their dependence on Tehran.

If more armed groups follow the same path, analysts say Iraq could move closer to consolidating state control over its security forces and reducing one of Iran's most important channels of influence in the region.

By Nazrin Sadigova