Iranian oil: Washington's concessions to weaken Moscow? Foreign experts respond to Caliber.Az

The US has eased restrictions on Iran's oil exports, allowing it to sharply increase shipments to China. Although Washington is acting in self-interest in limiting oil and gasoline prices, the "oil warming" in relations with Tehran allows the latter to compete more vigorously with Russia by undermining its supplies to Asia.

The Joe Biden administration and Iran's leadership have been engaged in intense negotiations in recent months that have led to tentative agreements on a possible swap of arrestees and the unlocking of $6 billion in Iranian petrodollars in South Korea. Besides, Tehran has reportedly slowed uranium enrichment work, Bloomberg writes. US officials say they have gradually eased up on some of the sanctions that Donald Trump imposed five years ago after tearing up the Iran nuclear deal.

As a result, the country's oil production increased to the highest level during the Trump sanctions period, whereas exports to China increased to the highest level in the last decade.

In this vein, shipments to Beijing have risen to 1.5 million bpd, according to Kpler. Meanwhile, according to another company that tracks tanker movements, TankerTrackers.com, they even reached 2 million barrels in July, from what was 1.1-1.5 million in the previous months of 2023.

The additional inflow of Iranian barrels has been a factor in the recent decline in oil prices, which jumped to $88 a barrel of Brent between late June and early August as Saudi Arabia announced production cuts and Russia cut oil exports.

Naturally, a question arises: What does the United States need all this for? What goals is it pursuing? Are these activities aimed at weakening Russia's economic position? And is Washington ready for some sort of strengthening of Iran just for the sake of this?

These questions were answered by foreign experts for Caliber.Az. 

As Amir Mohammadi Chahaki, an Iranian political scientist and expert on Russian-Iranian relations, says, perhaps if Biden had known earlier that he would face such a challenge in Europe and that NATO would be indirectly at war with Russia, he would have returned to the nuclear deal without preconditions after winning the US presidential election.

"After February 24, 2022, the West faced its biggest security challenge since World War II - Russian military aggression against Ukraine. After the humiliating withdrawal of US military forces from Afghanistan, full support for Ukraine became the highest priority for the White House. In this context, it has become particularly important to conclude a kind of agreement with the IRI, which limits the development of uranium enrichment and provides adequate conditions for direct International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] surveillance in Iran, and this is possible only with the granting of some concessions. Iran has succeeded in this," the expert says.

Negotiations between the US and Iran have been ongoing for more than a year on various topics, including the release and exchange of imprisoned citizens and Tehran's access to blocked funds in various foreign banks, he notes. However, limiting uranium enrichment has always been one of the main topics of all direct or secret talks between Tehran and Washington, and it can be said that some results have been achieved here. The easing of restrictions on Iranian oil exports has already been achieved, and it seems to have come as a result of long negotiations, the expert added.

"Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and its increased cooperation with China, the restoration of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, and the announcement of the acceptance of Iran's request for BRICS membership are indicative of the Iranian government's attempt to demonstrate international success despite the ongoing US sanctions.

In some ways, this is good news for the foreign exchange market inside Iran, helping to strengthen the domestic currency. However, it is important to understand that without agreement and cooperation with the US and the lifting of banking sanctions against the Islamic Republic, the ability to use the potential of these international organisations to cooperate will be limited. For this reason, Tehran has to continue negotiations with Washington," Chahaki emphasised.

He also specified that Russia's military invasion of Ukraine and Washington's full support for Kyiv has led to another problem between Iran and the United States.

"A significant portion of the Iranian public believes that sending drones to Russia, which have been instrumental in destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and reducing Russia's military spending, is neither ethical nor in Iran's future interests.

That is, in addition to the problem of Iran's nuclear program, a new one has appeared on US President Joe Biden's desk: Iran's military support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.

In light of this situation, Washington, which is always guided by its own interests in the international arena, may be ready to make big concessions to Tehran if it makes the necessary decision and stops supplying drones," the Iranian political analyst said.

As the American analyst, publicist and professor Grigory Ioffe stated, he has a very low opinion of the capabilities of Blinken and Nuland's team to carry out multi-move combinations.

"So, I would divide what's described into component parts. The Iran deal goes back to the Obama presidency. Trump scrapped it. The Biden administration has long been working to restore it. Perhaps they believe that the sanctions policy has reached a dead end and resulted in a complete loss of leverage over Iran. To some extent that is true. Sanctions almost always lead to a dead end.

Secondly, I doubt that bringing significant amounts of Iranian oil to the market is dictated precisely by the desire to weaken Russia. It could be, of course. But today, as the election battle unfolds in America, it is much more important, from the point of view of the ruling party, to help lower fuel prices domestically.

Look, today gasoline in America costs about $4 a gallon, whereas at the end of the Trump administration, it cost about $2.40," the professor said.

According to him, the Biden administration has no success in other areas of the economy either.

"Inflation [a cumulative process], bank interest [mortgages are becoming unaffordable], pension savings – it is solid flops everywhere. This is recorded in opinion polls.

The domestic price of gasoline, which is strictly dependent on world prices, has a much greater impact on the outcome of the political struggle in America than the possibility of further punishing distant Russia. Therefore, I would not build too complicated schemes here," Ioffe concluded.