Israel Defense: Russian impact on Iranian-Israeli conflict

Israel Defense has published an article on the Russian impact on the Iranian-Israeli conflict. "Israel tries not to aggravate Russia, because of the Russian-Iranian ties – but also attempts to stay neutral in the rivalry between Russia and Israel’s patron, the United States," the article notes. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

The Iranian-Israeli conflict has been Israel’s main security concern. As part of that Israel tries not to aggravate Russia, because of the Russian-Iranian ties.

Israel tries to stay neutral in the rivalry between Russia and Israel’s patron, the United States. It has to do mainly with the war in Ukraine. Israel certainly does not want to be seen as a Russian ally. There is already resentment in the United States and other western states about Israel’s policy regarding Ukraine.

Iran and Israel can learn from the war in Ukraine, yet Iran has a better position in this matter since Iran participates in that fight by providing Russia with weapons such as drones. Iran can learn from this experience if Iran or its partners use drones against Israel.

Israel can send the Iron Dome to Ukraine, to see how they perform against Iranian drones. Ukrainian troops proved they are capable of assimilating new weapon systems quite fast so they might be able to operate Israel’s Iron Dome too. Yet Israel hesitates because of several reasons. At the military level, Russia will gradually learn how to handle the Iron Dome.

Russia can share this knowledge with Iran, which will be used by Iran to improve its drones so they will have better chances to defeat Israel’s air defence in the future. On the political level although Israel’s Iron Dome would help to protect the Ukrainian population, not fighting Russia’s forces on the frontline, it would still be seen by Russia as a clear provocation by Israel, bringing Russia to retaliate against Israel. Russia already warned Israel not to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Israel has been bombing in Syria for the last ten years, as part of its conflict with Iran and its partners. Since 2015, following the Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war, Israel has been coordinating its strikes with Russia. This arrangement has been quite effective, and Israel managed to continue to reduce the delivery of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.

If Israel sends weapons to Ukraine, Russia might retaliate by making it more difficult for Israel to stop Iran from giving weapons to Hezbollah. Russia might not seek direct confrontation with Israel, in Syria, but it might happen. Israeli aircraft might have to suppress Russian antiaircraft batteries if the latter open fire at Israeli fighters.   

NATO supports Ukraine against Russia. Israel is a major non-NATO ally. NATO and Israel might improve their relations in fields like cyber and counterterrorism, which might concern Russia. This too would increase the tension between Russia and Israel, which might cause Russia to respond by helping Iran.

 The Biden administration does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. In January this year a vast joint US – Israeli exercise, “Juniper Oak 23.2”, took place. It was not officially aimed against Iran, but Iran understood the message. The short exchange of punches between the US military and Iranian partners, following attacks on US forces in Syria in late March was another US message to Iran.

Nevertheless, the US approach for more than a decade now is to reduce its presence in the Middle East, as part of focusing on other challenges, mainly China. The Biden administration continues with this policy, including in striving to avoid striking Iran let alone getting dragged into another major conflict in the Middle East.

The current tension between Israel and the Biden administration, following the unrest in Israel and the latter’s policy regarding Ukraine and Russia, might influence US willingness to accept Israel’s requests to assist her against Iran.   

Russia might assist Iran’s nuclear program, although if Iran has nuclear weapons, it will jeopardize ethnic Russian who live in Israel. Russia might help Iran, especially if Israel annoys Russia, such as by giving weapons to Ukraine. Russia can then sell Iran advanced weapon systems such as the SU–35 fighters and the S–400 air defence systems. It will help Iran defend its nuclear sites if Israel bombs them.