EU-US trade deal nears deadline amid tariff showdown, retaliation threats

European and US officials express cautious optimism about securing a trade agreement before the looming July 9 deadline, which threatens to trigger an additional 50% tariff on most European exports to the United States.

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard conveyed confidence in the negotiations, stating in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, “From the experience of the last few months, we can clearly see that the US is in on the deal.” However, the anticipated outcome is expected to be somewhat uneven, with certain US tariffs, including a 10% baseline duty on EU exports, likely to remain in place, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

This prospect has prompted some European officials to advocate for retaliatory measures if the deal falls short of their expectations. EU envoys are scheduled to review the negotiation status today as discussions continue throughout the week, while simultaneously preparing potential counteractions should talks collapse.

In parallel, the European Commission is preparing to propose that specific high-quality carbon credits be permitted to account for up to 3 per cent of the bloc’s pollution reduction targets by 2040. According to a draft document reviewed by sources, the Commission’s forthcoming July 2 proposal will use a 90% net emissions reduction target as a benchmark for achieving climate neutrality by mid-century.

Meanwhile, Southern Europe is grappling with severe heat waves, pushing temperatures above 40°C and raising alarm over wildfire risks. Italy’s Health Ministry placed 21 of its 27 monitored cities under the highest heat alert level. Spain experienced similarly extreme conditions, with Seville recording temperatures soaring as high as 42°C.

On the geopolitical front, efforts to restrict Russia’s maritime activities continue, with at least 13 vessels reportedly allocated to service the Arctic LNG 2 export facility. Experts suggest that Russia’s growing fleet capacity may be sufficient to transport cargoes should Moscow secure buyers, according to compiled images and data.

European stock markets have outperformed their US counterparts by the widest margin on record in dollar terms during the first half of the year, signaling a robust regional market rebound. This resurgence extends beyond equities, with the euro appreciating by 13% against the US dollar from January through June.

By Vafa Guliyeva