ISW: AFU advance on Bakhmut direction, counterattack near Avdiivka

Ukrainian troops continue to carry out offensive actions in the Donetsk region. In particular, the AFU raised the Ukrainian flag over the Horlivka heap. Also, Ukraine's army counterattacked in the Avdiivka direction and repelled Russian forces from positions near Stepove.

US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows the due data in its daily assessment of the Russian military campaign.

Russian forces continued localized offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 12 but did not make any confirmed gains.

A Russian milblogger noted that the tempo of Russian offensive operations along the Synkivka-Petropavlivka line has decreased and that Russian forces are attempting to exhaust Ukrainian forces in the area.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces intensified offensive operations near the Serebryanske forest area and that Russian and Ukrainian forces fought in combat engagements near Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 12.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that unspecified elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces repelled three Ukrainian assaults near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Terny (17km west of Kreminna) and that unspecified elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces repelled five Ukrainian assaults near Kirovsk (17km west of Kreminna) and Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna).

A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces with tank support unsuccessfully attacked near Shyroka Balka (11km west of Kreminna).

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations northeast and south of Bakhmut on December 12 and recently advanced south of Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted footage of Ukrainian forces raising a flag over the Horlivka waste heap (22km southeast of Bakhmut or just west of Horlivka) uncontested, signalling their control of the area.

Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces control the waste heap.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are taking advantage of the strong winds impacting Russian reconnaissance drones to conduct reconnaissance-in-force along the Horlivka-Mayorske line (20-24km southwest of Bakhmut).

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Pazeno, Luhansk Oblast (20km northeast of Bakhmut).

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage claiming to show elements of the “Kamerton” detachment of Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz and the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] 2nd Army Corps) capturing positions west of Klishchiivka.

The Russian MoD posted footage claiming to show elements of the Russian 331st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th Guards VDV Division) operating near Bakhmut.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces launched a massive offensive with armored vehicles in the Avdiivka direction on December 10 and continued these assaults with air support.

The spokesperson for a Ukrainian unit serving in the Avdiivka direction stated on December 12 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and pushed Russian forces from positions near Stepove on December 11.

Geolocated footage published on December 11 indicates that Russian forces advanced northwest of Marinka (directly west of Donetsk City).

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in northern Marinka and near Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City) but noted that Russian forces do not completely control Marinka.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 14 Russian attacks near Krasnohorivka (directly west of Donetsk City), Marinka, and Novomykhailivka.

It also reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked north of Pryyutne (16km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

The “Vostok” Battalion operating in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast stated that poor weather conditions are making it almost impossible to use communications systems or drones.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked along the Robotyne-Verbove-Novofedorivka line (up to 15km northeast of Robotyne).

Geolocated footage published on December 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced east of Novoprokopivka (2km south of Robotyne).

Russian Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky claimed on December 12 that Russian forces significantly advanced northeast of Novopokrovka (13km northeast of Robotyne), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.

Russian milbloggers claimed on December 12 that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from unspecified positions near Krynky.

Russian source claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting in meeting engagements in Krynky and that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully tried to gain a foothold in the forest area near the settlement.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky ordered the creation of assault units modelled after the “shock battalions” of the White Army during the Russian Civil War that broke through enemy defences and raised morale in other units. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the personnel in these new shock units have low discipline and motivation, however.