ISW: Decrease in quality of missiles may hinder Russian strikes on Ukraine

Russian forces likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and drone strike packages against Ukraine in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defences.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have recently been launching strikes against Ukraine using a variety of missile types, including hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces launched unspecified air decoys and Shahed drones in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence systems so that Russian forces could conduct successful missile strikes, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW has observed Russian forces experimenting with various combinations of drone and missile strikes in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defence systems as Ukrainian forces have adapted to Russian strike patterns.

ISW previously assessed that Russia may be intensifying efforts to source ballistic missiles from abroad because ballistic missiles may be more successful in striking targets in Ukraine in some circumstances. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on January 14 that sanctions are likely reducing the quality of Russian missiles. The reported decrease in quality of Russian missiles may further hinder Russia’s ability to conduct successful strike series against Ukraine.