ISW explains why Russia increasingly conducts air attacks on Ukraine

Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive operations in the near term.

Russian forces have conducted at least 10 series of strikes throughout Ukraine, particularly in rear areas, since April 19, Caliber.Az reports, citing the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW, Russian forces have used significantly fewer high-precision missiles in these latest series of strikes in comparison to their failed campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure from the fall of 2022 through the winter of 2023.

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces likely expended a significant proportion of their precision missiles in the previous air campaign, and the current Russian air campaign may be using far fewer of these missiles in an effort to conserve the limited remaining stocks.

Russian forces have instead relied heavily on launching large numbers of Iranian-made Shahed drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences, although Ukrainian forces have been more effective in shooting down Russian precision systems than during the previous Russian air campaign, ISW writes.

“The new Russian air campaign appears to be focused on Kyiv and alleged Ukrainian military-industrial and logistics facilities in deep rear areas,” the report says.

The more limited air campaign has so far been more regular than the previous wider Russian campaign against critical infrastructure, and ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may be attempting to conduct almost daily series of strikes to portray themselves as successfully constraining potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

The alleged targets and limited nature of this campaign indicate that Russian forces are immediately concerned with current Ukrainian capabilities to launch counteroffensive operations, although the diminished effectiveness of these strikes is likely not significantly constraining Ukrainian capabilities writ large.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
• Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive operations in the near term.
• Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around Bakhmut on May 14.
• Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) is attempting to distract from recent Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut by praising Russian defensive efforts against the Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” is continuing efforts to expand its presence and influence public discourse.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued to fire on areas west of Hulyaipole in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue efforts to replenish manpower losses using prisoners.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to prepare for the September 2023 elections in Russia-controlled territories.