ISW: Homs in rebel crosshairs as Assad’s army collapses near Hama
The opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with allied forces, has launched an offensive aimed at capturing Homs, following their seizure of Hama city and its military airport on December 5.
According to a report by the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), HTS forces are advancing rapidly due to the collapse of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the region, per Caliber.Az.
Fateh Mubin, the HTS-led operations centre, announced plans to push south toward Homs immediately after securing Hama. Reports by Syrian oppositionist media indicate that a column of HTS-affiliated fighters is heading along the M5 motorway toward Homs. Unconfirmed accounts suggest that residents in Talbiseh, a town approximately 8 kilometres north of Homs, have initiated efforts to liberate their town in anticipation of the HTS advance.
ISW highlights that the opposition is capitalizing on agreements with local communities to avoid combat and expedite territorial gains. Residents in two Christian-majority towns north of Hama and Shia Ismaili leaders in Salamiyah have reportedly negotiated surrenders, allowing opposition forces to bypass significant resistance. Syrian army forces retreated from Salamiyah on December 5, continuing a broader pattern of withdrawals by Assad’s forces in the countryside surrounding Hama.
The retreating SAA has failed to establish defensive lines between Hama and the Orontes River, leaving opposition forces largely unchallenged in their advance. The Syrian Air Force bombed the Rastan bridge over the Orontes River after losing control of the northern bank to the opposition. However, ISW notes that alternative bridges and fords east and west of the Rastan bridge are likely to facilitate the continued movement of opposition forces across the river.
The rapid disintegration of SAA defences reflects a growing inability of Assad’s government to maintain control in central Syria. ISW suggests that this collapse is enabling HTS and its allies to move toward Homs with minimal resistance, signalling a significant shift in the balance of power in the region.
By Tamilla Hasanova