ISW: Kremlin may use blogger's murder to strengthen censorship in Russia

Russian officials may be intending to use prominent pro-war Russian military blogger Maksim (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) Fomin's assassination to drive the self-censorship of a growing Russian civil society questioning the progress of the war in bars.

The Russian Federal Security Service [FSB] launched raids of bars in Moscow and St Petersburg in March on the basis of accusations that individuals in those bars were providing financial assistance to Ukrainian forces and involving minors in “anti-social acts", Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin had then instructed the FSB to intensify counterintelligence measures and crackdown against the spread of pro-Ukrainian ideology on February 28 — an order that has been used to dismantle gatherings in Moscow and St Petersburg bars.

The Wagner-affiliated Kiber Front Z movement has been spearheading discussions about the war in Prigozhin-owned bars for months, and this high-profile assassination may discourage people from attending similar events. This attack may also be an effort to intimidate other Wagner-affiliated military bloggers.

Key inflexions in ongoing military operations on April 2:

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal gains northwest of Kreminna.

Russian forces continued to attack Bakhmut and its environs. Russian forces likely seized the AZOM plant in northern Bakhmut as ISW has previously assessed. Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike on the plant on April 2.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. Ukrainian Tavriisk Direction Forces Joint Press Center Spokesperson Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces retreated from unspecified positions in the Donetsk direction.

Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a rail depot in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, the third strike against the city in the past week.

The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that a significant minority of Russia’s 200,000 casualties in Ukraine are due to poor discipline and training outside of combat, including due to excessive alcohol consumption and mishandling of small arms.

Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official Rodion Miroshnik denied ISW’s April 1 report citing Miroshnik that Russian authorities are deporting Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes. Miroshnik claimed mothers and children from Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast went to Russian sanitoriums for medical treatment.

Miroshnik denied being closely affiliated with the current occupation regime, claiming that he has not served as an advisor to the Head of the LNR for a year. LNR People’s Militia Press Service called Miroshnik “advisor to the LNR Head” as recently as January 29, 2023, however. Miroshnik claimed on his Telegram channel that he served as LNR Ambassador to Russia as recently as November 13, 2022.