ISW: Kremlin setting conditions for renewed offensive from Belarus

The Russian military may nevertheless attempt to conduct a diversionary attack on the ground or in the information space against northern Ukraine, likely in an effort to divert Ukrainian forces from defending in Donbas.

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA), a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aimed at Kyiv since at least October 2022, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This MDCOA could be a Russian information operation or could reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actual intentions.

Currently available indicators are ambivalent—some verified evidence of a Russian buildup in Belarus makes more sense as part of preparations for a renewed offensive than as part of ongoing exercises and training practices, but there remains no evidence that Moscow is actively preparing a strike force in Belarus.

Prominent Russian pro-war milbloggers are amplifying the possibility of the MDCOA over the winter-spring period.

The Russian military has more clearly been setting conditions for an offensive in northwestern Luhansk Oblast.

Key takeaways of the analysts:

• ISW assesses that the Kremlin has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)—a renewed offensive from Belarus possibly aimed at Kyiv—since at least October 2022. The Kremlin may be conducting an information operation or may actually be preparing for this MDCOA, which ISW continues to assess to be unlikely but possible.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February 2023, which could be timed to exploit a failed Russian winter offensive.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia.
• Russian forces conducted at least two reconnaissance-in-force operations in northern and northeastern Ukraine on December 22-23.
• Ukrainian forces likely made tactical gains east and south of Bakhmut City over the past 72 hours.
• Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is intensifying its censorship efforts to silence concerns over an expansion of the Russian Armed Forces and a second mobilisation wave.
• Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian officials in occupied territories.