ISW on Ukraine's counteroffensive in different front directions

Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since June 4. 

Ukrainian officials signalled that Ukrainian forces have transitioned from defensive to offensive operations in the Bakhmut sector and are making gains of between 200 metres and nearly two kilometres on the flanks of the city, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains during limited localised counterattacks in Western Donetsk Oblast near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border since June 4,” the report says.

Besides, the Ukrainian forces additionally conducted an attack in Western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8 but do not appear to have made gains as part of this attack as of the time of this publication.

Ukrainian forces also reportedly lost Western-provided vehicles on June 8. 

The overall Russian response to the attack, both among various milbloggers and the Russian MoD, was notably coherent and relatively consistent with the available visual evidence, which may suggest that Russian forces were not surprised and reacted in a controlled and militarily sound manner.

As ISW has previously assessed, the Russian information space reacts with a high degree of chaos and incoherence when taken by surprise by battlefield developments that do not allow the propaganda apparatus to develop a clear line. By contrast, the Russian responses to this attack suggest that Russian forces defended in the way that they had prepared to, thus giving Russian

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.
• The Russian MoD responded to the Ukrainian attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions.
• Russian sources provided explanations for claimed Russian successes during the June 8 attacks, praising Russian forces’ effective use of electronic warfare (EW) systems, air support, and landmines against Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv.
• Ukrainian attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive.
• It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theatre, and their defensive performance is unlikely to be reflective of defensive capabilities of Russian groupings elsewhere on the front.
• Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to exacerbate the humanitarian ramifications of the flooding resulting from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam break.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly postponed his annual press conference from June 2023 until November or December 2023.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and around Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces made limited gains around Bakhmut, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• The Russian MoD continues to posture itself as a firm authority over the defence industrial base (DIB) through emphasising its ability to transport new equipment to the front.
• Russian occupation authorities are reportedly resorting to punitive measures against civilian populations in occupied Ukraine due to Russian occupation authorities’ decreasing influence over civilians.