ISW: Putin uses two simultaneous military efforts to regain control of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s [Institute for the Study of War] assessments based on Kremlin statements and actions.

"Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favourable to Russia. This fundamental objective has underpinned the Kremlin’s various military, political, economic, and diplomatic efforts over the past 10 months in Ukraine," Caliber.Az reports, citing a report from ISW.

The report added that the Russian leader "is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his ultimate objective of regaining control of Ukraine and securing major territorial concessions".

Russia’s current offensive pushes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and the ongoing campaign of massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure is intended to create realities on the ground that Russia will likely demand Ukraine recognize as the basis for negotiations, ISW said.

Russian troops have reinforced their efforts throughout Donetsk Oblast with freed-up combat power following the withdrawal from the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast and have been consistently pursuing territorial objectives, albeit unsuccessfully. ISW continues to assess that Putin has given the order for Russian troops to complete the capture of the entirety of Donetsk Oblast and that current Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast are part of the effort to execute that order.

Putin likely hopes that these offensive operations will threaten Ukraine‘s ability to defend territory further and cause significant damage to Ukrainian combat power so that Ukraine will have no choice but to negotiate a ceasefire, concede on Russia’s terms, and ultimately allow Russian troops the time to reconstitute and relaunch new offensive operations in the future.

The massive Russian missile strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure are Putin’s second military effort to compel Ukraine to surrender or enter negotiations on Putin’s terms. Over the course of the last two months, Russian forces have used missiles and drones to systematically target civilian and energy infrastructure in a way that generates disproportionate psychological impacts but does not achieve significant military objectives.

"These two military efforts are failing to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions, and Ukraine has retained the battlefield initiative following its two successive counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Putin may therefore be setting conditions for a third, sequential military effort in the likely event that these two efforts fail to secure his objectives by preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023," according to ISW analysts.

The winter 2023 timeframe suggested by Ukrainian officials for such a potential offensive is consistent with ISW’s long-standing assessment that the winter will facilitate Ukrainian and Russian offensive operations and is consistent with the current projected timeline for the completion of Russian force generation efforts.

Key conclusions by ISW experts

Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine - possibly against Kyiv - in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.  A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed.

Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his objective of conquering Ukraine and securing major concessions.

Putin is likely setting conditions for a renewed offensive before the spring of 2023 to coerce Ukraine into offering concessions.

Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack from Belarusian territory, although ISW continues to assess that the Belarusian military will not join the fighting in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine.

The Russian officer corps continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine.

Ukrainian partisans conducted a sabotage attack on a power transformer substation in Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhya Oblast.