ISW: Russian forces using new tactics to complicate Ukrainian air defences’ ability

Russian forces conducted four Kalibr missile strikes on Mykolaiv City on April 27, and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces directed the missiles using different terrain features, different heights of launches, and multiple trajectory changes to complicate their detection by Ukrainian air defences.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged that Russian forces conducted a sea-based, long-range, high-precision missile strike on April 27, following its recent notable silence about Russian missile and air strikes as part of its broader missile campaign in Ukraine, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 27.

ISW previously assessed that Russia‘s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine‘s unified energy infrastructure definitively failed and that Russian forces appear to have abandoned the effort. 

Russian forces maintain the capability to renew their missile campaign if they desire, and Russian forces may employ these tactics in order to conserve their stocks of high-precision missiles in the event of a renewed missile campaign.

Key Takeaways from the ISW's report:

• The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, and logistics.
• The three command organs that are reportedly receiving new leadership as part of this reshuffle are noteworthy because they are associated with managing aspects of Russian force generation, troop sustainment, and logistical oversight.
• Western officials expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appears to have launched a renewed campaign for national attention.
• Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani in New Delhi, India on April 27.
• Russian forces conducted defensive operations in the Kupyansk direction and limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
• Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut but may be transferring additional reserves to the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces are further militarizing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to defend against possible Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• The Washington Post reported that leaked US intelligence documents state that Russian military leaders aim to enlist 815,000 soldiers while balancing concerns about critical labour shortages.
• Ukrainian partisans conducted three separate attacks in occupied territories on April 26-27.