ISW: Russian troops make little progress west of Donetsk

Russian troops confirmed advances near Donetsk and Verbove, while positional fighting continued along the entire line of contact.

“Russian forces recently marginally advanced west of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on January 7 shows that Russian forces advanced on Heorhiivka’s (6 km west of Donetsk City) eastern outskirts,” Caliber.Az reports, citing a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the report, Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces captured two churches in Heorhiivka and advanced 300 metres and that Russian forces also advanced on the opposite bank of the Osykova River from Marinka (directly west of Donetsk City).

The ISW analysts say positional engagements continued west of Donetsk City near Marinka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.

“Moreover, Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage published on January 8 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced west of Verbove (east of Robotyne).”

As the ISW report notes, Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne, west of Verbove, and north of Novoprokopivka (south of Robotyne).

“A Russian military blogger claimed that Russian forces can only reach their positions with armoured tracked vehicles in the Zaporizhia direction due to worsening icy road conditions. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that the poor weather conditions in Zaporizhia Oblast are inhibiting Russian and Ukrainian forces from using drones to adjust artillery fire,” the ISW report.

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials highlighted the need for more air defence systems after another large series of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 7 to 8.
• Western provisions of air defence systems and missiles remain crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces attempt to adapt to current Ukrainian air defence capabilities and as Ukraine develops its defence industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces are adapting to battlefield difficulties from equipment shortages but are struggling to completely compensate for artillery ammunition shortages and insufficient electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
• Russian authorities are reportedly illegally deporting Ukrainian civilians to Russia and holding them in penal colonies and pre-trial detention centres without charges, investigations, trials, access to lawyers, or designated release dates.
• A Russian insider source claimed that Russian officials dismissed First Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU), Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, who was reportedly in charge of the Russian “Volunteer Corps” that was intended to replace the Wagner Group.
• ISW cannot confirm either Alekseyev’s dismissal in fall 2023 or the reports of shell shortages disproportionately affecting the Russian “Volunteer Corps.”
• Russian authorities continue efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
• Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 8 that recent polling shows decreased domestic support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential elections.
• Russian government and media officials recently have died, possibly under mysterious circumstances.
• A Russian state media outlet confirmed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained three officers of its Directorate “M” in connection with a high-profile bribery scheme.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and Verbove, and positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 8 that there are more than 450,000 Russian military personnel in Ukraine as of December 2023.
• Russia continues to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine under the guise of vacations.