Media: NATO may boost defence spending

NATO is unlikely to follow Donald Trump's suggestion for a significant increase in defence spending but may agree to exceed its current target.

The US president-elect proposed that NATO members should allocate 5 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defence, a substantial rise from the current 2 per cent target, a figure that no NATO country, including the US, currently meets, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Trump’s remarks, made during a press conference that also garnered widespread attention for his comments on Greenland, Canada, and Panama, served as a reminder of his emphasis on NATO spending during his first term.

He had previously threatened not to protect allies who failed to meet the defence spending target. NATO officials acknowledged the need for increased defence spending but did not support the 5 per cent figure, which analysts argued would be politically and economically unfeasible for nearly all members. 

Achieving that target would necessitate additional funding amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Officials indicated that a new defence spending target is likely to be set during a NATO summit in The Hague this June, driven by concerns that Russia might target a NATO country after its actions in Ukraine and by Trump’s persistent calls for higher spending. The main uncertainties are the specific target figure and whether it will satisfy Trump. 

Some anticipate that NATO's 32 members will eventually agree on a target of around 3 per cent of GDP, though that would still be a challenge for many nations, many of which are struggling to meet the existing 2 per cent goal, even a decade after it was established.

"It seems there will be a shift," said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in an interview with Reuters. "I don’t think it will be 5 per cent, which would be impossible for almost every nation in the world right now, but... it will not be two [per cent], which we are already struggling to reach, so it will be more than two." 

Italy, with defence spending at around 1.5 per cent of GDP, is one of eight NATO members that fail to meet the current target. Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, allocated the highest percentage of its GDP to defence among NATO members, spending 4.12 per cent last year, according to alliance estimates. Estonia follows with 3.43 per cent, while the United States spent 3.38 per cent. NATO's total defence spending in 2024 is projected to reach $1.474 trillion, with around $968 billion coming from the US and $507 billion from European nations and Canada. 

The overall average for NATO members stands at approximately 2.71 per cent of GDP. Some officials and analysts view Trump's proposal of 5 per cent as an initial, ambitious offer to start negotiations, with many anticipating a compromise closer to 3 per cent. During his 2020 presidential campaign, Trump had suggested a 3 per cent target, noting that it would require a roughly 30 per cent increase in defence spending for most NATO countries.

By Naila Huseynova