Media: Russia preparing drone strikes on Mediterranean countries

US intelligence has warned the EU that Russia is preparing drone strikes against Mediterranean countries.

US intelligence agencies have gathered information about Kremlin plans to escalate the conflict and have shared it with several European governments. “They will use drones launched from the sea, concealed inside a ship’s container; it is not difficult at all,” said a source close to the Lithuanian Defence Ministry, quoted by El Mundo.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that the supply of weapons, intelligence and military advisers to Ukraine makes Western countries participants in the war and legitimate targets. Until now, however, it has operated below what experts describe as the “war threshold”, thereby avoiding actions that could trigger a coordinated NATO response. But sources now say that a sabotage campaign has been launched against targets in countries supporting Ukraine, with the aim of testing the limits and assessing the response.

The initial escalation occurred a year ago, when 19 drones, carrying no munitions, entered Polish airspace. According to intelligence assessments, the key turning point was the recent drone incident at Leipzig Airport, which German authorities attribute to Russian intelligence.

Lithuanian authorities claim that Russia is using the Gerbera drone against Spain, France or Italy. The drone can travel 600 kilometres at a speed of 160 km/h. A merchant vessel could carry several such UAVs and launch them more easily than the larger Geran drones.

In theory, a Gerbera could be launched from 200 or 300 kilometres offshore, and its payload could start a fire, damage exposed equipment, or temporarily shut down a port or airport. The potential impact, it is noted, could be not only material but also political and economic.

Lithuania, like other countries, received this information following a mysterious trip to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe on August 25. The governments of Spain, France and Italy were also informed that Russia was preparing a possible drone operation against one of these countries. The warning coincides with an unusual response from Emmanuel Macron, who convened the Defence Council on September 16 and, two days later, summoned the leaders of all political parties and presidential candidates for the 2027 election to the Élysée Palace. Several sources in European foreign ministries confirmed that they were aware of the report, which provides a highly detailed description of a potential attack.

Spain, France and Italy were selected because all three countries will be holding election campaigns and elections in 2027, and all have radical political forces that could exploit fear and war fatigue over the conflict in Ukraine. The distance of countries such as Spain from Russia's borders does not guarantee their safety.

“The targets will not necessarily be countries on the front line. The target will be any weak point in Europe, as well as countries such as the UK or Spain, which have not invested in integrated air and missile defence systems commensurate with the Russian threat,” the report states.