Media: Trump confronts complex path to peace in Ukraine, Middle East

During his campaign, Donald Trump, the incoming 47th president of the United States made a bold promise to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, claiming he could negotiate a ceasefire within 24 hours by pressuring Ukraine to cede territory for peace. 

However, recent developments indicate that achieving such a resolution may be far more complex than he initially anticipated, Caliber.Az reports per Politico.

Despite facing a much more complex and hostile international landscape than during his first term, Trump is once again positioning himself as a peacemaker, although recent developments suggest that achieving such a resolution may be far more complex than he initially anticipated.

Though Trump has surrounded himself with a team of hardline figures, including several hawkish figures and “mega-disrupters,” some of those who worked with him insist that his core ambition remains to negotiate peace agreements and avoid global conflicts.

Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump's national security adviser during his first term, remains optimistic about Trump's peacemaking aspirations, claiming, “I told the president very early in my tenure, ‘You’re going to be known as the peacemaker.’ I think that is still his vision.”

However, the challenges that await Trump as he re-enters the world stage are substantial. Despite his earlier promises to broker peace, his first term was marked by failed attempts to reach meaningful agreements with adversaries such as China, Iran, and North Korea. Now, the global landscape has shifted dramatically, creating an even more difficult environment for achieving his goals.

Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine, even launching significant missile attacks in recent weeks. Trump’s recent phone call with Putin, reportedly urging him not to escalate, appears to have had little effect, as Putin’s forces continue to mobilize for a potential offensive in the southeast of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine is running low on troops, and US President Joe Biden's decision to send long-range missiles to Ukraine has led to further escalations, with Russia again threatening nuclear retaliation.

Despite these growing tensions, Trump remains confident that his skills as a dealmaker could de-escalate the situation. However, his challenge is compounded by the firm stance of his own party, particularly strong support within the GOP for continued support of Ukraine, including from his incoming secretary of State, Sen. Marco Rubio. If Trump listens to this influential faction, he may be reluctant to offer a peace deal that would appear to concede significant territory to Russia, potentially undermining his credibility early in his presidency.

Another region that could see early challenges in Trump’s presidency is the Middle East, where Israel’s ongoing military operations against Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon have put immense pressure on the region. Trump has expressed support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military strategy, even encouraging him to “wrap things up” by the time he is inaugurated.

Netanyahu, however, is in a stronger position politically after Israel’s military success against Hamas and Hezbollah. This newfound strength allows him more room to resist US pressure, especially as discussions about annexing the West Bank and potential military actions against Hezbollah continue to evolve.

While Netanyahu’s government seems open to negotiating a ceasefire in Lebanon as a diplomatic gesture to Trump, the annexation plans in the West Bank could make any lasting peace agreement more elusive.

Such a move would likely alienate potential allies in the region and delay the hoped-for Saudi-Israeli normalization pact that has long been viewed as a key component of a broader peace deal. For Trump, the stakes are high, as the actions of his advisers, including hawks like Rubio and his ambassadorial appointments, may push him towards policies that prolong conflict rather than resolve it.

By Aghakazim Guliyev