Media: Trump’s South Korea snub pushes Japan, Asian allies towards greater self-reliance

The Trump administration’s decision to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea is prompting US allies across the Indo-Pacific to reconsider their reliance on Washington, with Japan increasingly positioning itself as a leader of a broader coalition of US-aligned countries.

President Donald Trump’s move to shorten the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, coupled with his plans to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this year, has raised concerns among Asian governments about the reliability and long-term capacity of the US security commitment to the region.

“Expect a refocus on self-reliance,” one Asian diplomat told POLITICO, arguing that countries are likely to increase investment in their own defence capabilities while continuing to rely on US technology and equipment where necessary.

The concern extends beyond South Korea. Japan, in particular, increasingly sees itself as leading a coalition of US allies facing uncertainty over Washington’s long-term commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

“Tokyo keeps repeating that the U.S.-Japan alliance is a cornerstone of its defense policy, but that’s dwindled down to lip service at this point,” said Yuki Tatsumi, a former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese Embassy in Washington. Japan, she said, increasingly sees itself as “leading a coalition of U.S. allies with deep anxiety about U.S. long-term commitment in the region.”

The shift reflects a broader effort by regional governments to strengthen defence ties with one another and reduce their dependence on Washington. Japan and the Philippines reached an agreement in June aimed at creating a secure supply chain for joint military training, while India and Vietnam launched an initiative in May to explore joint weapons production.

South Korea is also seeking to broaden its partnerships. President Lee Jae Myung is pursuing closer links with Japan, Gulf states and African countries as Seoul attempts to compensate for growing uncertainty in its military relationship with Washington.

The concerns have been amplified by the war in Iran, which has drawn US military assets away from Asia. The departure of the only US aircraft carrier based in Asia for the Middle East, alongside concerns over depleted munitions, has raised questions about whether Washington can maintain its promised level of military presence during a multi-theatre crisis.

“Recent signals look more like U.S. disengagement, even though cooperation is clearly still ongoing,” a second Asian diplomat said. “The key issue is increasingly not U.S. intent, but U.S. capacity to sustain the level of presence it has promised.”

The uncertainty could encourage greater investment in air and missile defence, hardened military infrastructure and cooperation with Australia and European powers. In the longer term, concerns over the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella could also revive debates in Japan and South Korea over developing independent nuclear deterrents.

For Japan, the emerging challenge is therefore not simply how to preserve its alliance with Washington, but how to build a wider network capable of maintaining regional security if US engagement becomes less predictable.

China could benefit from that uncertainty. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Seoul comes as South Korea reassesses its defence posture, creating an opportunity for Beijing to encourage greater distance between Seoul and Washington.

“The Chinese leadership has long sought an opening to divide the U.S. from its two most important allies in the region: South Korea and Japan,” said Nicholas Burns, a former US ambassador to China. “The timing” of Trump’s criticism of Seoul, he added, gives Beijing an opportunity to widen the divide between Washington and its allies.

The result could be a gradual reshaping of the Indo-Pacific security architecture, with Japan taking a more prominent role in coordinating US allies while countries across the region strengthen their own military capabilities and diversify their defence partnerships.

By Aghakazim Guliyev