Merz faces mounting pressure as German political crisis deepens POLITICO outlines five scenarios

Germany’s political crisis is deepening as Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces growing pressure over the weakening position of his government, prompting the European edition of POLITICO to outline five possible scenarios for how the leadership turmoil could unfold.

According to the analysis, the most likely outcome is that Merz will cling to power despite mounting pressure within his party.

Merz appeared visibly discouraged following the recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a decisive victory, while the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) recorded historically poor results. The chancellor, who leads the CDU, now appears determined to fight to remain in office.

His position was further bolstered on September 14, when CDU regional premiers issued a statement expressing support for the chancellor. The declaration, however, could hardly be described as unequivocal support, as its authors did not mention Merz by name even once.

Still, the statement may indicate that senior CDU figures are not currently prepared to remove him. Instead, they may be seeking to close ranks and accelerate the federal government’s reform agenda.

The five scenarios are as follows:

1. Merz clings to power — 4/5

Contrary to the aftermath of the Saxony-Anhalt election, when Merz appeared discouraged and delivered an unconvincing speech in the Bundestag, the chancellor now seems determined to fight for his leadership.

His position was strengthened by a letter from eight centre-right state premiers, including Hendrik Wüst and Boris Rhein but not Markus Söder, who argued that Germany needs “reliability and action” rather than “discussions about personnel.”

The letter falls short of unequivocal support for Merz and does not even mention his name. It may have been intended to quell internal debates ahead of the September 20 elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. At the same time, it could indicate that senior CDU figures are not yet prepared to remove the chancellor. Instead, the party may seek to close ranks and accelerate reforms in an effort to regain public support.

The analysis put the likelihood of this scenario at 4/5.

2. Merz resigns lacking party support — 3/5

The second-most likely scenario is Merz’s voluntary resignation. One factor working against such an outcome is the absence of a clear consensus within the CDU/CSU over who could succeed him.

North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst is frequently mentioned as a potential successor, although he faces an election in his home state next April. Another possibility is CSU leader Markus Söder, while Hesse Minister-President Boris Rhein and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt are also among the less likely candidates.

However, if the CDU suffers a major setback in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election on September 20, frustration within the party could reach a boiling point and lead to broad calls for Merz to resign.

The showdown does not necessarily have to come immediately after the vote. Merz could potentially step down several days or weeks later if internal pressure becomes overwhelming.

3. Merz seeks a confidence vote — 2/5

Merz could also call a confidence vote himself in an attempt to demonstrate that he still has sufficient backing within the governing coalition — or to open the door to snap elections.

Such a move has happened before, most recently when former Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought a confidence vote in December 2024.

If Merz loses, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days, but only if the chancellor asks him to do so. However, given the AfD’s strong position in current polls, neither the CDU nor the SPD has an obvious interest in holding new elections at this stage.

It would also be possible to elect a new chancellor within those 21 days if a successor could quickly secure a parliamentary majority. Overall, however, this scenario remains relatively unlikely.

4. No-confidence vote forces Merz out — 1/5

Pressure from within the CDU cannot by itself force Merz to resign, as Germany’s constitution gives an elected chancellor a relatively stable position.

The only way to forcibly remove him would therefore be through a constructive no-confidence vote, under which parliament must simultaneously elect a replacement with a majority.

Such an outcome appears difficult because of the governing coalition’s narrow majority and the negotiations that would likely have to take place with the SPD before any successor could secure the necessary votes.

5. Far-right support against Merz — 0/5

Theoretically, a successor to Merz could secure the necessary parliamentary majority through indirect backing from the AfD or even form a coalition with the far-right party.

Such an arrangement would give the CDU/CSU and AfD a comfortable majority, but it would also mean breaking Germany’s political “firewall” against cooperation with the far right.

The prospect remains unacceptable to many figures within the CDU leadership, while Merz himself has ruled out remaining in power with AfD support.

By Jeyhun Aghazada