NATO capable of defending against Russian aggression Assistant secretary general says

NATO members must be prepared for possible Russian aggression, but the alliance is capable of defending against it, NATO Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Security Policy Boris Ruge said in an interview with LRT RADIO.

After almost two years of full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the situation is still very difficult. Ukraine repeats that it needs more weapons. We see that some countries are pledging further support, but there is no agreement in the United States and the European Union on additional aid. Some experts in Lithuania say that the aid is stalling because the West is afraid of a Russian defeat. Would you agree?

I don’t think that’s the case. I think that there were many who didn’t expect this war to last so long. Now, we are almost entering into the third year of this war. We, as Western countries, have provided an unprecedented level of support to Ukraine. But it turns out that our stockpiles are not as well equipped as they should be. And so there are real issues in supplying Ukraine and in maintaining our own defence.

It’s true that we’ve had some challenges in the United States Congress. There’s a debate that also touches on US internal issues, but I’m confident that the Americans will deliver the next package of arms, ammunition, and equipment to Ukraine. I’m confident that the European Union will do the same.

In the meantime, we have a number of NATO and EU member states who have pledged very significant amounts of equipment for this year. Obviously, the Baltic countries are leaders in this, but other countries, like the Netherlands or Germany, have also made very significant pledges in the billions of euros to keep supporting Ukraine. So, I’m confident that the Western nations that have supported Ukraine will continue to do so because we cannot allow Ukraine to be defeated.

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Vilnius last week, he mentioned that he expects two things from the NATO Washington Summit in the summer: more air defence systems for Ukraine and one concrete step towards NATO membership. What could Ukraine really expect?

I think President Zelenskyy is exactly right about the air defence. It is absolutely critical that Western nations continue to supply Ukraine with what it needs to defend its skies against these massive Russian attacks. And the Russian attacks we’ve seen since the end of December are the heaviest attacks against Ukraine since February 2022.

Regarding the NATO membership, last year here in Vilnius, we had a historic decision by NATO clarifying that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance. There are a number of things that need to be done on the path to NATO membership. That includes reforms in the security sector. It includes political reforms in Ukraine. We will see whether allies in Washington, hopefully, 32 allies, including Sweden, will be able to agree on this. There’s no doubt that Ukraine is moving towards NATO membership, but it’s too early to tell whether there will be another step, as suggested by President Zelenskyy.

Ukraine may not be invited?

Exactly. The next step would be an invitation, and it’s not clear whether we will see such an invitation in Washington. I think we have to acknowledge that there’s a debate going on in many NATO member states, that there are elections in NATO member states in 2024. So, this is part of a bigger picture. But I think we will find ways of highlighting the fact that Ukraine is moving closer to NATO.

Talking about the security situation in this region, the Lithuanian foreign minister fuelled some discussion by saying that we must be prepared for another Russian war and that this aggression could be several years away. Can we say that NATO is ready to react from the first second to this possible aggression?

I think since 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine for the first time and annexed Crimea, the main job of NATO has been to improve our deterrence and defence. So, for the past ten years, we’ve been working to become better at deterring Russia and if need be, defending against any type of Russian aggression.

Russia is identified as the number one threat to the alliance. If you look back at 2014 and the level of defence spending across NATO countries, it was not a good picture. But we’ve come a long way. We have a whole set of military plans to deter and defend, and we are now working towards resourcing those plans [...]. It’s hard work. It requires difficult decisions, but we are moving in the right direction.

And when it comes to Lithuania, I would say we have seen a huge change. In 2014 there was a decision to put in place an enhanced forward presence, which was a battalion size multinational element here led by Germany. Now, just a few weeks ago, we had the signing here in Vilnius of an agreement putting on a permanent basis a heavy brigade in Lithuania. I think that highlights that NATO is very serious about backing up allies on the eastern flank and defending against any possible aggression.

At the end of the day, NATO, which will soon have 32 members, is a very powerful alliance. We have very strong economies and advanced technology. We are perfectly capable of defending against Russian aggression.

And is public preparedness a challenge? Some experts say that Western societies do not want war.

Societies do not want war. No one wants war. I think what we have learned, unfortunately, is that a major war in Europe is a possibility and now a reality. Russia is waging this biggest land war in Europe since World War Two in an indiscriminate way, targeting civilians, killing thousands of people in Ukraine. Sadly, we have to realise that for Russia, for the Russian leadership, for President Putin, waging war without any legal basis, violating all the rules and norms of international law, is something that they’re willing to do.

So, we better be prepared to stop that from happening – deterring Russia and if need be, defending against Russia. And we can do that. I think people understand now that these are real risks and threats and that we need to be prepared for them. That also means putting the defence spending in, which means spending less on other things that are very important to voters across our democracies.

Talking about Lithuania’s efforts, you mentioned the important agreement between Lithuania and Germany on the deployment of the brigade. Lithuania is also spending more than 2.5 per cent of its GDP on defence. What else can be done to not only wait for the alliance to defend Lithuania but also to ensure that the country is ready to defend itself?

My sense is that Lithuanian society, living on the eastern flank of NATO, bordering Belarus, which is an ally of Russia and has shown very aggressive behaviour as well, understands very well the reality of European security today and the need for societies to be resilient and the need to improve our defences. So, I think you’re in pretty good shape and backed up by the strongest alliance in history.

I think we have a lot of work to do. That’s true. But I think we are perfectly capable of developing our defence posture in such a way as to exclude any attack on Lithuania.