NATO’s future without US: A new chapter for European defense

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has long relied on the United States as its dominant military and political leader, but the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy under former President Donald Trump have raised critical questions about the alliance's future. The dramatic departure from NATO’s core principles and the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S.'s commitment to its European allies have made it clear: NATO may have to reconsider its structure and defense responsibilities. In a recent analysis Foreign Affairs article explores the potential future of NATO in the absence of the United States, the Europeanization of defense, and the financial and strategic challenges ahead.

Since Donald Trump returned to office, his administration has consistently undermined NATO’s foundational principle of collective defense. The U.S. stance, from questioning the shared threat perception to openly criticizing NATO members’ defense spending, created cracks in the alliance. Trump's direct threats to NATO allies, such as Canada and Greenland, and his controversial opposition to a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have called into question NATO’s unity.

With Congress stepping in to prevent a unilateral U.S. withdrawal, the possibility of a U.S. exit remains unlikely, but Trump’s rhetoric has already done significant damage. The credibility of NATO’s Article 5, the core of the alliance’s collective defense, rests not only on the treaty’s legal framework but also on the mutual belief among allies that they will support one another in times of need. Trump’s actions have significantly eroded this belief, leaving European countries uncertain about the U.S.'s reliability.

In theory, NATO could survive without the United States. The alliance could still function with its 31 remaining members, and the collective defense commitment would remain intact. However, practically speaking, replacing the U.S.'s military and technological contributions would be an enormous challenge for Europe. The U.S. provides crucial military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, integrated air defense, and advanced communications, which no European country can currently replicate on its own.

In response, European leaders have begun to take steps to reduce their dependency on the U.S. In early March, the European Union agreed to a defense spending boost, freeing up substantial funds for defense production. Germany, in particular, has made a historic shift in its defense policy, with a significant increase in military spending. The goal is to meet NATO's defense requirements by the early 2030s, with European nations committing to provide 75-80% of the forces needed to implement regional defense plans.

However, these efforts will take years to bear fruit. Europe faces the dual challenge of building up its military capabilities and maintaining a unified defense structure without undermining NATO’s cohesion. The successful transition will depend on continued U.S. cooperation, especially in areas like nuclear deterrence, where Europe cannot yet independently match U.S. capabilities.

Despite these challenges, NATO’s survival hinges on Europe's ability to step up and take responsibility for its own security. With its significant economic resources and a combined population of over 600 million, Europe has the potential to defend itself and ensure the alliance’s future. However, the road to a self-reliant NATO will require massive investments in defense and a strategic shift in the way European countries perceive their role within the alliance.

The future of NATO is uncertain, but one thing is clear: Europe can no longer afford to rely solely on the United States for its security. Now is the time for the alliance’s remaining members to act, investing in defense capabilities and building a robust, independent security framework for the decades to come.

By Vugar Khalilov