NATO summit faces rhetoric over action Amidst rising Russian aggression

In the upcoming parliamentary elections in France and the United Kingdom, as well as the approaching presidential contest in the United States, the focus seems detached from critical issues like debt, decarbonization, and defence.

Instead, the discourse revolves around personalities and superficial topics, a sentiment underscored by the recent unsuccessful election campaign in London, as highlighted by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Meanwhile, the NATO summit in Washington DC appears similarly mired in rhetoric rather than action. Efforts are concentrated on crafting language that navigates Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO amidst the Biden administration's hesitancy. New structures, such as a US-led mission based in Germany, aim to streamline NATO's often chaotic military support for Ukraine. Yet, substantial debates persist behind closed doors regarding command responsibilities in northern Europe and the fulfilment of defence commitments.

Despite these diplomatic manoeuvres, Western responses to Russia's aggressive actions across Europe feel inadequate and belated. From cyberattacks crippling infrastructure to undersea data cable sabotage and disruptive GPS jamming, Russia's hostile activities go largely unchecked. Military provocations, including airspace violations and missile launches towards Ukraine via Polish skies, underscore NATO's reactive stance. Even incidents like the reported Arctic submarine standoff between Russian and US forces in 2021 have been downplayed in public discourse.

A troubling evolution in Russian hybrid warfare now involves employing local criminals instead of traditional intelligence operatives. Instances include assaults on Russian opposition figures and destructive arson attacks in Lithuania and Poland. The escalation extends to cyber intrusions affecting healthcare services in London and espionage activities in non-NATO states like Austria, where Russian-backed criminals executed a fatal attack on a military pilot.

Despite these aggressions, Western diplomatic efforts seem disconnected from the harsh realities of Russian aggression, undermining effective deterrence. While speeches and summits dominate, adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran continue to erode Western defences with impunity. The upcoming NATO summit, while anticipated, appears unlikely to alter this troubling dynamic.