Navigating Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process COP29 and beyond

One of the key topics discussed in the context of COP29 in Baku was the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Sharing his perspective on the issue in an interview with TASS on the sidelines of COP29, Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, provided insight.

“The meeting in Kazan between Mr. President and the Prime Minister of Armenia was very productive. Our intention is to continue negotiations based on the momentum generated there. Currently, Azerbaijan’s primary focus is COP29, which will continue until the end of November. It’s likely that, starting in December, a new phase will begin between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where discussions and negotiations on the peace agreement text will resume,” Hajiyev said.

According to the presidential aide, certain issues remain unresolved in the draft document.

His remarks reveal two fundamental messages from Baku. On the one hand, there is optimism about the peace process; on the other, there is a clear resolve in official Baku not to yield to overt or covert pressures from various Western countries. Both Washington and Paris have issued statements—some bordering on ultimatums—urging Azerbaijan to "acknowledge" a special responsibility, allegedly imposed by hosting COP29, to expedite a peace deal on Armenia’s flawed terms. This approach seeks to push through an incomplete peace agreement, sidestepping three critical unresolved points, among them a foundational requirement for peace: the removal from Armenia’s Constitution of clauses asserting territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Baku has made it clear that it does not wish to conflate the climate agenda with the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and does not view its role as the climate summit’s host as a favor to anyone.

Yerevan’s decision not to send a single representative to COP29 appears to reflect its deep frustration with Baku’s firm stance. Yet it would be unrealistic to expect Baku to take any other position, especially considering that Yerevan, along with the Armenian diaspora, has stoked anti-Azerbaijani sentiment in global media for months. Meanwhile, Armenia is hosting what could be called its own “alternative” or rather marginal COP, where the most notable—and perhaps only—distinguished guest is activist Greta Thunberg. Starting her anti-Azerbaijani campaign with a sip of chacha in Tbilisi, Thunberg has since moved on to Armenian “cognac,” which, technically speaking, is now branded as brandy.

Greta Thunberg, meanwhile, is no longer the same youthful figure she once was. Her influence, previously bolstered by an exaggerated media spotlight, has waned as the novelty of her age has faded. The appeal of a young girl challenging the "polluting adults" was one thing; an adult Thunberg, however, is quite another, blending in with countless other activists of her generation. This is a classic case of “coming of age”—but for what purpose, it remains unclear.

Thus, Thunberg’s outbursts will cause no more harm to Azerbaijan than the disdainful expressions of Macron and other European leaders who opted not to attend the event in Baku.

In their absence, however, the presence of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer became even more striking and symbolic. COP29 was far from being boycotted, as Azerbaijan held strong against the challenges posed by a malicious PR campaign. The steadfast defenses of the Azerbaijani state have weathered all attempts to undermine the summit.

This should serve as yet another lesson for Yerevan that attempting to pressure Baku through blackmail, threats, or other manipulative tactics is futile. The most sensible course of action for the Armenian leadership now is to heed Azerbaijan’s stance and come to the negotiating table—after COP29.

In other words, as much as some may wish it otherwise, it’s important to keep the wheat separate from the chaff.