NYT: Ukraine’s economy under growing strain as Russian strikes intensify

The war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly extending into both countries’ economies, with Moscow and Kyiv targeting industries, logistics and commercial infrastructure in an effort to undermine their adversary’s economic capacity, The New York Times reports.

Ukrainian officials have described Russia’s intensified campaign as “total war,” saying the attacks are increasingly aimed at reducing output, disrupting supply chains and causing job losses rather than securing battlefield gains.

Russia has expanded strikes against Ukrainian warehouses, ports, locomotives, border crossings and ships, while recently targeting internet infrastructure that has disrupted services for about 100,000 households. Increased daytime air alerts have also forced businesses to close during attacks, reducing consumer activity.

“In a war of attrition, the economy becomes the prime target,” said Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House.

Moscow is also seeking to increase the cost to European countries of supporting Ukraine, Lutsevych said. Ukraine has estimated that the economic damage from Russia’s campaign could reach about $10 billion by the end of the year, largely through lost sales, disrupted working days and logistical disruptions.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on September 24 cut its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth this year from 2.2% to 1.5%, while some economists have warned that the economy could end the year with no growth.

Dimitar Bogov, chief economist at the bank, said labor shortages and intensified bombardments meant Ukraine was entering “its most difficult period of the war.” Despite relatively strong household spending power, he said, people “are not able to spend.”

Ukraine has also suffered mounting losses to its rail network. Of roughly 1,800 locomotives operating before the war, around 500 have reportedly been lost, with the country now losing about one locomotive a day on average.

Kyiv’s own economic campaign has increasingly focused on Russia’s oil sector, with Ukrainian-made drones targeting refineries and other commercial assets.

For Ukrainian businesses, the intensifying attacks have prompted a shift toward distributed storage, underground facilities and alternative logistics. Kyiv-based wine distributor Good Wine, for example, lost about $9 million in inventory after another Russian strike hit its facilities this year.

“Every day the war goes on, everything becomes more expensive,” said co-founder Dmytro Krymsky. “It’s really hard to run a business in Ukraine.”

By Vafa Guliyeva