NYT: US eyes Venezuela-style leadership transition scenario for Cuba

The Trump administration has been seeking current or former Cuban officials who could potentially take over the government in Havana as Washington intensifies pressure on the island, according to current and former U.S. officials.

The approach is described by U.S. officials as more focused on altering Cuba’s leadership than pursuing outright regime change, sources tell The New York Times.

According to the officials, the Trump administration has asked U.S. intelligence agencies to identify a potential successor similar to Delcy Rodríguez, who became Venezuela’s interim president after U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

U.S. officials viewed Rodríguez as a pragmatist who could assume power smoothly and work closely with Washington. Some members of the Trump administration believe a similarly pragmatic figure could emerge in Cuba.

However, U.S. intelligence assessments reportedly indicate that Cuba’s political situation more closely resembles Iran’s than Venezuela’s.

People briefed on the intelligence assessments said there are few pragmatic Cuban officials positioned to take power if former Cuban President Raúl Castro, who continues to wield significant political influence, were captured by U.S. forces or if the current leadership were otherwise forced from power.

Instead, officials who could potentially succeed the current leadership are seen as representing harder-line factions, similar to those in Iran.

In recent weeks, U.S. officials have presented Cuban leaders with a list of demands, along with potential incentives if Havana makes progress toward meeting them.

The Cuban government appears to be backing Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a grandnephew of Fidel Castro, as a potential successor. He has recently received greater exposure on state television and in government statements and has given a rare interview to international media.

However, Pérez-Oliva Fraga would likely be unacceptable to the United States, according to the officials.

The Trump administration could potentially consider another member of the Castro family, Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito” or “El Cangrejo” (the Crab). He is Raúl Castro’s grandson and served for years as his grandfather’s bodyguard but has never held public office.

Cuba’s current Interior Minister, Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, could also be considered acceptable by U.S. officials.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with both Rodríguez Castro and Álvarez Casas during a visit to Cuba this year.

The precise plans of the United States regarding Cuba remain unclear.

By Sabina Mammadli