NZZ: Germany’s rearmament raises questions over future nuclear ambitions

Germany’s planned military expansion is fueling debate over how far Berlin could go in strengthening its armed forces, including speculation that the country could eventually consider developing its own nuclear weapons.

Under its large-scale rearmament programme, Germany plans to allocate more than €700 billion to defence by 2030. The Bundeswehr is also expected to expand from about 186,000 active personnel to 260,000, while a reserve force of around 200,000 people is planned, the Swiss NZZ (Neue Zürcher Zeitung) am Sonntag newspaper writes.

An analysis by the Swiss newspaper said Germany already ranks fourth globally in military spending, behind the United States, China and Russia. It outlined several possible directions for the country as it expands its defence capabilities.

One scenario involves the Alternative for Germany (AfD), currently the country’s most popular party, becoming part of the government. Historians cited in the analysis said the party could seek to reduce Germany’s integration into NATO and the European Union and push for a greater degree of European strategic autonomy from Washington.

The likelihood of such a shift would depend on the outcome of the September elections and subsequent political developments in the Bundestag.

A more radical scenario would see Germany seek a dominant military and political position in Europe. Under this scenario, a heavily rearmed Germany could pursue greater influence over neighbouring states and eventually consider developing an independent nuclear arsenal.

Germany currently does not possess its own nuclear weapons, but it has significant scientific and technological capabilities. Chemist Rainer Moormann estimated that the country could potentially require around three to five years to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels and subsequently develop a nuclear warhead.

Any move toward an independent German nuclear arsenal would represent a major change in Europe’s security landscape and could have far-reaching consequences for NATO, the European Union and the continent’s existing nuclear balance.

By Sabina Mammadli