Only one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal confirmed destroyed US intel tells Reuters

The United States has been able to confirm the destruction of roughly one-third of Iran’s extensive missile arsenal as the US-Israeli campaign against the country approaches the one-month mark, according to five sources familiar with US intelligence assessments.

The condition of another third of Iran’s missile stockpile remains uncertain, although four of the sources said it was likely that US and Israeli strikes have damaged, destroyed, or buried those weapons in underground tunnels and bunkers. The sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.

One of the sources added that a similar intelligence assessment applies to Iran’s drone capabilities, with a comparable level of certainty that about one-third has been destroyed.

The previously unreported assessment suggests that although a significant portion of Iran’s missile arsenal is either destroyed or currently inaccessible, Tehran still retains a substantial inventory. Some of the missiles believed to be buried or damaged could potentially be recovered once hostilities subside.

These findings contrast with recent public remarks by US President Donald Trump, who said on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left.” At the same time, Trump acknowledged the ongoing threat posed by remaining Iranian missile and drone capabilities, particularly in the context of any future US operations aimed at securing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters has previously reported that Trump is considering whether to escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to Iranian shores along the Strait.

“The problem with the straits is this: let’s say we do a great job. We say we got 99% (of their missiles). 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that costs a billion dollars,” Trump said during a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served four tours in Iraq, declined to comment directly on the reported intelligence findings but challenged Trump’s assessment of Iran’s remaining capabilities.

“If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability - they’re not using everything that they have. And they’re laying in wait,” Moulton said.

The Trump administration has stated that its objective is to weaken Iran’s military by sinking its navy, destroying its missile and drone capabilities, and ensuring that the country does not acquire a nuclear weapon.

US Central Command has said its operation, officially named “Epic Fury,” is proceeding on schedule or even ahead of initial plans set before the launch of US and Israeli strikes on February 28.

According to Central Command, US strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday and have sunk 92 per cent of Iran’s large naval vessels. The military has also released imagery of attacks on facilities producing Iranian weapons, emphasising that the campaign targets not only existing missile and drone stockpiles but also the industrial infrastructure behind them.

Despite these claims, Central Command has not provided precise figures on how much of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been destroyed. One source noted that part of the difficulty lies in determining the size of Iran’s missile stockpile prior to the war, as much of it was stored in underground facilities. The US has not publicly disclosed its own estimate.

Estimates vary widely, with Israel’s military placing Iran’s pre-war missile inventory at around 2,500, while some analysts suggest it could be as high as 6,000.

By Tamilla Hasanova