"Paris's confrontation with Baku fits well into the Franco-Turkish brinkmanship" Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert Igor Ignatchenko

Paris, which does not hide its pro-Armenian position, has prepared a draft resolution calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan. Six members of the Senate from four different parties worked on the document which will be put to a vote on November 15.

The resolution calls on European Union countries to impose economic sanctions against Baku and refuse to import Azerbaijani oil and gas. It goes without saying that the draft also includes such demands as the provision of Armenians with "the right of return" to Karabakh, "preservation of the Armenian cultural heritage" in the territories of Azerbaijan liberated from occupation, cancellation of agreements on the Lachin corridor.

It is clear that a very large Armenian diaspora in France, led by an influential lobbying group in that country, is behind the idea of an anti-Azerbaijani resolution and its promotion. However, France is not Armenia and has its own interests, in particular economic ones, some of which are closely linked to Azerbaijan. Will Paris sacrifice business relations with Baku in favour of Yerevan and what are the consequences of approving a resolution against Azerbaijan?

These and other questions were discussed by Caliber.Az with Igor Ignatchenko, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Russian Francologist, Associate Professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The Russian analyst clearly states that France is now actively trying to take Russia's place as the main international mediator in the South Caucasus region. "At the same time, Paris is known to be pro-Armenian in this conflict. Confrontation with Azerbaijan fits in well with the Franco-Turkish brinkmanship," Ignatchenko notes.

As for the draft resolution, the vote on which is scheduled for November 15, he is almost sure that the document will be voted for in the upper house of the French parliament by the majority, i.e. it will be adopted.

"Let me remind you that on November 25, 2020, the French Senate already passed an anti-Azerbaijani resolution recognising Karabakh. However, it is important to bear in mind that the adoption of the resolution does not mean that the republic's government must necessarily implement the resolution. Rather, the Senate's decision can be perceived as an important signal to France's political elites, nothing more. So, this time too, President Emmanuel Macron and his government may behave in a more restrained and cautious manner," the expert said.

However, according to the Frankologist, experiencing a serious shortage of energy resources, the French government will not take any active action against Baku this winter.

"At the same time, if the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict drags on, it is possible that in the future Paris will put more pressure on Azerbaijan, relying on Senate decisions in its policy. Neither should it be ruled out military supplies to Armenia in the future. However, it is important to take into account that France will seek to harmonize its policy on the South Caucasus region with the regional policy of the European Union, therefore it will behave more carefully in terms of real actions and more vigorously and offensively in terms of verbal attacks," Ignatchenko believes.

In conclusion, the expert stressed that France wants to play the role of a successful negotiator and mediator of the conflict, but at the same time promoting the interests of Armenia.

"Therefore, in the vote on the resolution in the French Senate, one can trace the desire of the French political circles to better probe and, if possible, weaken the position of Azerbaijan in the negotiation process. We should not forget the role of the influential Armenian lobby in the political system of the Fifth Republic," Ignatchenko summed up.