Philippines tests US alliance amid South China Sea tensions

In a recent article by the South China Morning Post, concerns over the Philippines' response to escalating tensions in the South China Sea underscore the complex dynamics involving regional powers and the United States.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has been cautious in downplaying the risk of conflict despite recent clashes, including an incident where Chinese maritime forces disarmed Filipino naval personnel, resulting in injuries. This incident has prompted calls for Manila to invoke its Mutual Defence Treaty with the US.

Philippine officials, however, have shown inconsistency in their responses. While Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr condemned the incident as an "aggressive and illegal use of force," others, like Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, suggested it could have been a misunderstanding. President Marcos has opted for a middle ground, emphasizing non-alignment with any foreign power while asserting Philippine sovereignty in the disputed waters.

Central to the Philippines' hesitation is a historical scepticism regarding America's commitment under the Mutual Defence Treaty, particularly during past crises like those at Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal. The treaty's ambiguity leaves room for doubt, compounded by US policies of strategic ambiguity advocated by figures like Henry Kissinger. This uncertainty has fueled Filipino public sentiment, with significant portions of the population questioning the benefits of security relations with the US in the context of South China Sea disputes.

Recent US administrations have sought to reassure the Philippines of their support under the Mutual Defence Treaty, but challenges persist. China's actions in the South China Sea, often falling below the threshold of armed attack, test the treaty's effectiveness in deterring aggression. Efforts to clarify the treaty's applicability to scenarios involving non-kinetic attacks or excessive force remain ongoing, reflecting concerns over China's strategic intentions in the region.

Looking ahead, potential measures include enhanced military cooperation between the US and Philippines, including joint patrols and the provision of defence assets. However, America's credibility as a reliable ally and regional leader faces scrutiny amidst broader geopolitical challenges and distractions elsewhere. The Biden administration, navigating multiple global crises, has yet to revise guidelines underpinning the Mutual Defence Treaty or provide substantial new military aid to the Philippines, despite ongoing security concerns.

As tensions persist and China's ambitions in the South China Sea evolve, the future of US-Philippines relations hinges on clarity and action to reinforce deterrence while maintaining stability in one of the world's most strategically vital maritime regions.