Poland takes EU baton as Tusk braces for pivotal presidential election

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s focus in the first half of next year will not be on Poland's EU presidency, but on the May presidential election and ensuring a successor to incumbent Andrzej Duda who is sympathetic to his government.

Duda, an ally of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, has repeatedly blocked Tusk’s government from implementing its agenda, including by refusing to approve ambassadorial candidates, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

While Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition leads in the polls, the election’s outcome could threaten his government’s ability to govern effectively if another PiS-backed president continues undermining his policies until 2027. Tusk is under pressure to deliver on campaign promises, such as expanding access to abortion and civil partnerships, while maintaining unity in his coalition, which includes the Polish People’s Party, Poland 2050, and The Left.

This domestic pressure will constrain Poland during its six-month EU presidency, which begins January 1. Piotr Buras from the European Council on Foreign Relations in Warsaw explained that the presidential election is Tusk’s top priority. An EU diplomat added that Poland’s presidency might prioritize national over European interests, especially on issues like migration, trade, and climate protection.

Poland downplayed concerns, with EU Affairs Minister Adam Szłapka asserting that the presidential election would not affect Poland's work in Brussels. However, Tusk will need to balance domestic politics with his leadership in Europe, especially given the potential influence of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. Trump’s stance on Ukraine could challenge Poland’s support for Ukraine, which has been a key focus for Tusk since Russia’s invasion in 2022.

Tusk’s main priority for Poland’s presidency is EU security, including both internal and external dimensions. However, critics argue that Tusk’s attention may be divided, and his influence on EU matters could be limited by national concerns. While Poland’s presidency may not drive significant EU change, it is unlikely to disappoint, especially following Hungary's controversial turn in the chair.

By Vafa Guliyeva